NFL · resolved market
Buccaneers vs. Lions: O/U 54.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85b5df7c9145a4aed2331a3285f37d6d865b86fa151df18cf0b2c82cc7275a58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 51c | 23,887$12,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,705.15 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Over | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,800 | 206 | 34.5%71 W · 135 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Over | 49c | 7,500$3,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,675 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 5,178$2,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,553.88 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d5…1ccbbacked Under | 52c | 1,040$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.2 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 48c | 1,040$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.2 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 52c | 770$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.6 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Under | 50c | 525$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.5 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 50c | 364.37$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.24 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 49c | 146.23$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Under | 50c | 80.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Over | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3a…b091backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Buccaneers vs. Lions: O/U 54.5this page
- Buccaneers vs. LionsLions won
- Buccaneers vs. Lions: O/U 52.5Under won
- Buccaneers vs. Lions: O/U 53.5Under won
- Spread: Lions (-4.5)Lions won
- Spread: Lions (-5.5)Lions won
- Spread: Lions (-6.5)Lions won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.