NFL · resolved market
Spread: Lions (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e34bf4f0e35c39e139a62360af6608425c99deef3229c73ac70571e5f2b538b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lionsof Lions, Buccaneers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e1c…440cbacked Lions | 55c | 2,447$1,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3079…b3a3backed Buccaneers | 45c | 2,447$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Buccaneers | 44c | 1,577$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.94 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Lions | 56c | 1,300$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Lions | 55c | 782.39$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.52 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Buccaneers | 43c | 766.37$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.63 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…3292backed Buccaneers | 45c | 666.87$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.09 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Buccaneers | 44c | 613.79$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.07 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b36…fd74backed Lions | 56c | 587$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.28 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Buccaneers | 44c | 526.77$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.78 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…8eabbacked Buccaneers | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…2534backed Lions | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x413c…1904backed Lions | 54c | 466.26$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.48 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e98…1f51backed Buccaneers | 46c | 466.26$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.48 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bce…558cbacked Lions | 56c | 428.55$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.56 | 162 | 75.3%122 W · 40 L | +17.3wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Buccaneers | 46c | 235$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.1 | 208 | 51%106 W · 102 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f55…bae8backed Lions | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Buccaneers | 46c | 165.91$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.16 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Lions | 54c | 152$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.92 | 174 | 54.6%95 W · 79 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Buccaneers | 43c | 116$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…430cbacked Lions | 56c | 98.21$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Lions | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…bff8backed Lions | 53c | 75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4403…4252backed Buccaneers | 45c | 68.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Lions | 57c | 62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7118…f6adbacked Lions | 57c | 59.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Buccaneers | 44c | 55.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ada…475bbacked Lions | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Buccaneers | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a4…7602backed Lions | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5a…dafdbacked Lions | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Lions | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de5…e001backed Lions | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebe…0ce6backed Lions | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lions (-4.5)this page
- Buccaneers vs. LionsLions won
- Buccaneers vs. Lions: O/U 52.5Under won
- Buccaneers vs. Lions: O/U 53.5Under won
- Buccaneers vs. Lions: O/U 54.5Under won
- Spread: Lions (-5.5)Lions won
- Spread: Lions (-6.5)Lions won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.