TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$380,367
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$354,189

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $380,367 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 345 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6964…ef53backed Yes75c24,371$18,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,023.1666222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed No2c21,309$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.541,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e22…3993backed Yes76c7,245$5,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,727.66931.9%22 W · 47 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick25cpaid+81%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed No43c7,000$2,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,992.07137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick24cpaid+10.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes8c5,855$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,408.2654122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes7c4,925$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,592.518206.6%54 W · 766 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes55c3,881$2,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,752.5228534.4%98 W · 187 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes17c3,735$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,090.72,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf503…39e2backed Yes18c3,678$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,011.863116.1%5 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-17.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9a44…021cbacked Yes16c3,674$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,074.312114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes14c3,582$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,079.8953817.3%93 W · 445 L-2.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes55c3,468$1,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,563.965240.4%21 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74c8…e1aabacked Yes18c3,133$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,557.571717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No14c3,123$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.614568.3%38 W · 418 L+1.3wins0.00per pick8cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes15c3,104$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,641.284816.7%32 W · 449 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes26c3,058$809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,249.275249.9%52 W · 472 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+64%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes54c3,039$1,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,410.212785%14 W · 264 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-89.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed No56c2,729$1,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,518.2510325.2%26 W · 77 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa40a…0615backed Yes68c2,344$1,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.35018%9 W · 41 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes14c2,033$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,749.3816417.1%28 W · 136 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No4c2,013$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.332,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed No15c1,994$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.1722119.9%44 W · 177 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes78c1,860$1,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.6668615.7%108 W · 578 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No31c1,586$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.323528.6%10 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid+10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be7…4efcbacked Yes21c1,370$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.69333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+55.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No77c1,342$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,035.1154675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x26db…7abcbacked Yes73c1,297$942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.86119.7%12 W · 49 L-6.8wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-55.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No42c1,275$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.7716969.2%117 W · 52 L+17.6wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+13%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe66e…f940backed No15c1,217$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.67147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.17per pick24cpaid-77.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes7c1,198$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,112.261715.3%9 W · 162 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c4c…4dafbacked No36c1,140$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.421520%3 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-24.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf2c…8c84backed Yes6c1,079$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,011.633215.6%5 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes15c1,065$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90028113.5%38 W · 243 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes6c1,053$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.5845511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe29…b07ebacked Yes17c1,012$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.852619.2%5 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes18c1,003$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826.4462713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5844…aa7ebacked Yes7c1,000$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9321315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+25.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb4b…3034backed Yes28c1,000$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes7c1,000$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92962412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f72…439dbacked No12c999.98$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xda10…eeccbacked Yes24c985.91$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.91520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11a7…2c03backed Yes26c962.43$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.43922.2%2 W · 7 L0.0wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e55…e157backed Yes28c948.56$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.557524%18 W · 57 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4219…6e2cbacked Yes47c920.01$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.726325.4%16 W · 47 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes25c902.22$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.7229610.5%31 W · 265 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec6a…65e1backed Yes7c898$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+614.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x63ea…2072backed Yes46c861.26$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.385820.7%12 W · 46 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-46%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x20d1…fe63backed Yes67c852.55$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.747821.8%17 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-31.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes20c841.34$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.2520717.4%36 W · 171 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80fc…42c3backed Yes6c834.56$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.941428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+53.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes19c821.14$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.7799619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70aa…8945backed No10c814.64$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68f3…776cbacked Yes12c790.04$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.92910.3%3 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-47.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4667…cab0backed Yes20c742.86$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.862100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+232.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x70e3…5e8cbacked Yes54c729.82$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.386610.6%7 W · 59 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-64.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes8c700.05$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.4512112.4%15 W · 106 L-10.9wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-58.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes66c686.82$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.1488610.3%91 W · 795 L-4.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes18c683.28$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.534869.7%47 W · 439 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ff4…eb8ebacked Yes44c680.3$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.46431.3%20 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafbb…7525backed Yes15c666.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.675226.9%14 W · 38 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd1c…61d7backed Yes21c662.45$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick27cpaid+166.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xac45…ea33backed Yes25c659.2$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.21315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-49.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b7e…79e5backed Yes23c639.65$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.651330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No40c627.55$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.19922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-69.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf09f…8049backed Yes10c616$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.36333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+217.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes27c609.98$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.5316319%31 W · 132 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x87e1…5998backed No70c599.99$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.9915520.6%32 W · 123 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked Yes13c599.5$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.93414.7%5 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-40.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8134…305fbacked Yes11c557.31$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.96317.5%11 W · 52 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x778c…f3afbacked Yes16c550.01$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.212222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd166…666ebacked Yes11c539.99$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.54425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+135%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2439…d220backed Yes20c536.53$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.53540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+37.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96df…1f97backed Yes39c500$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes12c499.81$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.3611221.4%24 W · 88 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes11c491.21$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.2142110%42 W · 379 L+1.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eff…6c34backed Yes22c452.65$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.65520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes5c444.15$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.953876.5%25 W · 362 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccb4…8d80backed Yes23c431.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.73825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35c6…6d71backed Yes12c423.69$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.369723.7%23 W · 74 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x80c0…f57ebacked Yes24c417.7$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.73611.1%4 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-51.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x932f…aeb6backed Yes24c409.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.19825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x675a…0551backed Yes17c402.87$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.871729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd4…0f95backed Yes45c400$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2201020%2 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0ce…5839backed Yes11c395.08$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.061811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0017…6e7bbacked Yes20c394.32$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.32366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick31cpaid+122.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes17c382.05$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.184616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd68d…f152backed Yes25c375$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.18933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74a2…2ab4backed Yes18c366.48$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.984818.8%9 W · 39 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf3d…d571backed Yes28c354.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.295317%9 W · 44 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked No13c352.94$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7773215.2%111 W · 621 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x651f…8e87backed Yes16c349.12$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.121520%3 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes11c339.5$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.697966.5%52 W · 744 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes26c325.61$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.5546521.3%99 W · 366 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c2…e932backed Yes7c307.29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.292317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b9e…4580backed Yes15c305.02$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.465625%14 W · 42 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-32.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Yes15c300$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.35512.7%7 W · 48 L+0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ff7…87a4backed Yes48c300$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.7616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-65.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes23c291.07$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.9513020%26 W · 104 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdce8…b298backed Yes75c278.35$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.221241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4312…a388backed Yes13c274.44$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.442222.7%5 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.