Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48f1c954c09456690fec588cadd59724c4fe3c0d7576364cb72931a346b3c1f9

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 28, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $427,981
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $297,253

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $427,981 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x50a8…143fbacked Yes	0c	256,179$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.18	46	2.2%1 W · 45 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	1cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	55,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x172a…db5cbacked Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	5,309$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.65	1,799	7.4%133 W · 1,666 L	-24.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf503…39e2backed Yes	1c	5,103$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.08	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	1c	3,049$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	456	11.6%53 W · 403 L	+8.1wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,745$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.08	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6486…b00bbacked Yes	6c	1,329$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.77	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.13per pick	20cpaid	+120.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5bd…81bcbacked Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7f7f…4846backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9713…fb1fbacked Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2280…479fbacked Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x184d…281abacked Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ea9…a10bbacked Yes	4c	944.13$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.01	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-57.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	796.33$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.94	2,576	13.2%339 W · 2,237 L	+4.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1bb1…f1e1backed Yes	7c	684.69$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x676e…eb0cbacked Yes	5c	670.48$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.85	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.12per pick	18cpaid	-80.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	543.12$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.45	2,181	3.9%85 W · 2,096 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x675c…9678backed Yes	6c	352.29$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+1.7wins	+0.12per pick	16cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf2c…8c84backed Yes	4c	340.68$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.99	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93c4…7599backed Yes	7c	290.14$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	230	17%39 W · 191 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf3d…d571backed Yes	7c	215.87$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	53	17%9 W · 44 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event