Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7455acc612c2e5028d7dca9e0b63472a9e05ebc6f0ec01d4c6672fc79b6e7f91

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 27, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $381,845
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $211,438

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $381,845 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	2c	47,461$762 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$761.99	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	0c	15,211$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.28	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	13,686$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.22	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb4b…3034backed Yes	1c	9,000$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.17per pick	16cpaid	+19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	8,802$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.41	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	7,594$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.38	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a44…021cbacked Yes	1c	7,220$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	0c	5,316$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	0c	4,869$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.41	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	4,822$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.36	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes	0c	4,385$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.15	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9991…9480backed Yes	1c	3,852$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.42	87	11.5%10 W · 77 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	2c	3,062$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.5	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x824c…6874backed Yes	1c	2,892$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.22	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-3.9wins	-0.09per pick	18cpaid	-67.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xde5d…c309backed Yes	1c	2,800$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.9	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eff…6c34backed Yes	2c	2,565$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	20%1 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…ba94backed Yes	2c	2,500$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.14	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes	4c	2,308$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.56	70	5.7%4 W · 66 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74c8…e1aabacked Yes	3c	1,901$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	4c	1,661$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.63	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	2c	1,500$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08c7…7203backed Yes	1c	1,484$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.57	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	1c	1,420$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.88	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	1,354$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.96	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xedda…3962backed Yes	1c	1,250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-15%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	4c	1,137$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf6ae…c6e0backed Yes	2c	1,100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.14	52	13.5%7 W · 45 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	2c	1,098$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.65	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	2c	1,059$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.19	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e7c…1350backed Yes	2c	1,021$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.05	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.14per pick	25cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0a1…0b00backed Yes	2c	1,007$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	238	19.3%46 W · 192 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-25%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b15…e32dbacked Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	2c	996.21$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3285…745fbacked Yes	1c	983.38$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.62	40	5%2 W · 38 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb128…7bb0backed Yes	2c	938.1$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.8	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	+1.3wins	+0.10per pick	21cpaid	+36.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec6e…95c4backed Yes	2c	835.65$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93c4…7599backed Yes	2c	831.09$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	230	17%39 W · 191 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes	2c	809.96$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf366…9ad8backed Yes	2c	750.16$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.83	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-3.6wins	-0.14per pick	22cpaid	-71.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd1e6…618dbacked Yes	7c	711.02$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.16per pick	4cpaid	+442.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x230b…d3d6backed Yes	3c	705$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	2c	702.57$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.64	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x246d…122ebacked Yes	2c	647.06$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+1.0wins	+0.08per pick	31cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ff4…d0b3backed Yes	3c	624.77$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.12per pick	34cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63ea…2072backed Yes	3c	549.97$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.78	58	20.7%12 W · 46 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-46%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe86c…10f3backed Yes	3c	490.95$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.84	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	+1.6wins	+0.08per pick	18cpaid	+31.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4219…6e2cbacked Yes	2c	426$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.59	63	25.4%16 W · 47 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4b9e…4580backed Yes	3c	401.25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	56	25%14 W · 42 L	-4.9wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x503c…f6b6backed Yes	4c	305.1$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.09per pick	16cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Yes	4c	300$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	55	12.7%7 W · 48 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes	4c	300$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	163	19%31 W · 132 L	-6.9wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xacfe…b2fabacked Yes	6c	190$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.08	58	25.9%15 W · 43 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event