Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1ea58102d6390f41f88948dd0af936135b332984b28760922fec3863a38d0d5

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 28, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $274,256
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $90,877

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $274,256 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	55,000$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.99	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5844…aa7ebacked Yes	0c	14,000$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	9cpaid	+25.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	12,883$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.95	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5942…7f98backed Yes	7c	10,000$698 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$698.39	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed Yes	1c	6,827$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.89	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes	0c	5,891$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.56	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	5,255$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.98	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50df…1f07backed Yes	3c	4,625$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.46	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-67.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	10c	4,098$425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$424.51	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	4c	4,015$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.77	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74c8…e1aabacked Yes	11c	2,351$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x995d…404dbacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9a44…021cbacked Yes	11c	922.64$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes	11c	893.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	38	15.8%6 W · 32 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	2c	800$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.5	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2439…d220backed Yes	14c	719.56$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.18per pick	22cpaid	+37.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	5c	671.63$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.5	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	6c	671.22$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.24	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70c5…1adfbacked Yes	11c	670.26$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.73	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac45…ea33backed Yes	5c	637.14$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-49.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bf1…d05dbacked Yes	8c	519.48$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	12c	505.95$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b56…80ddbacked Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-73.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeebf…d3ffbacked Yes	8c	481$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.03	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked Yes	12c	400$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	11c	400$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd87…dd8bbacked Yes	7c	399.99$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05ec…7158backed Yes	14c	365.66$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.5	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce98…51eabacked Yes	14c	357.14$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b6c…7e47backed Yes	33c	329.68$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb48…d219backed Yes	22c	318.6$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-51%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x80fc…42c3backed Yes	3c	300$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	+53.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8134…305fbacked Yes	13c	300$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	63	17.5%11 W · 52 L	-3.1wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7622…e618backed Yes	8c	276.49$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.35	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	6c	250$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefd3…5d9bbacked Yes	27c	249.59$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb47c…1b21backed Yes	15c	240.88$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0256…c5c1backed Yes	10c	238.64$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3116…8bbabacked Yes	8c	238.6$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+1.5wins	+0.12per pick	21cpaid	+4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcddc…63edbacked Yes	11c	227.27$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+301.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47b0…0237backed Yes	9c	219.69$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	+1.7wins	+0.10per pick	14cpaid	+45.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x676e…eb0cbacked Yes	12c	201.47$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.22	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.12per pick	18cpaid	-80.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6ae…c6e0backed Yes	13c	200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	52	13.5%7 W · 45 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x066e…d3ddbacked Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.25	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75a3…5fd5backed Yes	13c	200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x853f…9765backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70e3…5e8cbacked Yes	8c	198.6$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.89	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-5.3wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes	12c	188.1$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.57	130	20%26 W · 104 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0ce…5839backed Yes	12c	170$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92df…fd4ebacked Yes	12c	166.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x038c…aa97backed No	78c	160.43$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.43	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.11per pick	55cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…83c4backed Yes	23c	159.26$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf3d…d571backed Yes	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	53	17%9 W · 44 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc48…5d3bbacked Yes	13c	152.31$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-2.6wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x80c1…1034backed Yes	13c	151.63$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8981…ce82backed No	78c	150$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.5	181	63%114 W · 67 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf469…7aa9backed Yes	14c	142.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-52%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe29…b07ebacked Yes	15c	133.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x210c…2edabacked No	79c	129$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.36	12	75%9 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	76cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes	8c	128.87$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.15	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+39.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc603…27e2backed Yes	19c	127.6$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.21per pick	41cpaid	-70.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes	13c	124.34$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.16	246	18.7%46 W · 200 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65fc…beacbacked Yes	9c	122.22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	124	16.9%21 W · 103 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+32.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd440…8e73backed Yes	10c	120$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d1a…5dc3backed Yes	9c	116.14$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.85	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f5e…260cbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x382c…2261backed Yes	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	18cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf2f…966ebacked Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf9a…4e95backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34a2…9d91backed No	75c	97.82$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.82	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed No	80c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event