TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$283,014
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$151,019

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $283,014 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb40d…c72dbacked Yes0c23,435$23 inLost-$23.4350%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7509…4b9dbacked Yes5c18,782$1,000 inLost-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c11,419$22 inLost-$22.211,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes0c10,444$40 inLost-$40.417828.7%68 W · 714 L-1.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes2c10,000$200 inLost-$2004816.7%32 W · 449 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec6e…95c4backed Yes0c8,174$20 inLost-$201513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-30.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c1b…f9c1backed Yes0c6,667$20 inLost-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes1c3,112$22 inLost-$22.1362713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes1c2,959$18 inLost-$18.32218.2%4 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-50.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes1c2,592$26 inLost-$25.92705.7%4 W · 66 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick7cpaid+12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3cc…65c7backed Yes1c2,200$13 inLost-$12.61136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-43.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b15…e32dbacked Yes2c2,000$40 inLost-$403716.2%6 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3447…81e4backed Yes6c1,721$100 inLost-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a44…021cbacked Yes2c1,706$40 inLost-$402114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1e6…618dbacked Yes5c943.4$50 inLost-$50520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick4cpaid+442.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d6d…83adbacked Yes3c753.62$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No5c741.61$36 inWon+$705.272548%12 W · 13 L+9.2wins+0.37per pick11cpaid+624.5%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x852a…3188backed Yes2c610$12 inLost-$12.2540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+210.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1960…6ca8backed Yes2c476.19$10 inLost-$10450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+34%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No50c200$100 inWon+$99.816969.2%117 W · 52 L+17.6wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+13%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.