Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42a91a324af668ef7a4c78e4d6ad9c73840caadce82d61892dfc3e821d49fde3

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 28, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $411,399
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $202,545

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $411,399 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	105,000$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	23,759$321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321.46	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	16,690$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.25	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	0c	16,534$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.68	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed Yes	1c	12,050$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.92	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5844…aa7ebacked Yes	0c	8,000$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	9cpaid	+25.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	8c	6,000$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	7c	5,677$408 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$407.5	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	4c	3,981$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.73	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68f3…776cbacked Yes	0c	3,492$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	6cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	1c	2,625$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.15	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74c8…e1aabacked Yes	12c	2,130$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	2,110$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.16	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	2c	1,715$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.6	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9a44…021cbacked Yes	11c	1,248$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked Yes	11c	1,200$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e55…e157backed Yes	2c	1,100$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.2	75	24%18 W · 57 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x995d…404dbacked Yes	1c	1,075$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	9c	1,053$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	5c	1,000$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea9…a10bbacked Yes	9c	802.48$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.22	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-57.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	1c	740.12$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.53	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12cc…275dbacked Yes	1c	732.41$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	128	18.8%24 W · 104 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xafbb…7525backed Yes	14c	714.29$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	52	26.9%14 W · 38 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f54…93d5backed Yes	12c	674.36$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3a…7c00backed Yes	6c	668.57$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes	15c	665.65$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	38	15.8%6 W · 32 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac45…ea33backed Yes	9c	653.63$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-49.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	13c	511.16$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.23	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	493.33$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.63	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7622…e618backed Yes	9c	415$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.35	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x932f…aeb6backed Yes	7c	402.09$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce98…51eabacked Yes	13c	373.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6337…1ae0backed Yes	15c	331.79$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeebf…d3ffbacked Yes	10c	311$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.99	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes	7c	300$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	75	17.3%13 W · 62 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8134…305fbacked Yes	14c	300$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	63	17.5%11 W · 52 L	-3.1wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Yes	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	55	12.7%7 W · 48 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2011…df96backed Yes	19c	284.32$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.38	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9ca…bbf5backed Yes	23c	282.61$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcddc…63edbacked Yes	9c	274.72$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.72	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+301.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5320…2845backed Yes	19c	269.14$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6920…8f0abacked Yes	23c	235.91$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.18per pick	57cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes	8c	225.11$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.54	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+39.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	12c	225$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc91…8032backed Yes	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf532…70eabacked Yes	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b7d…dca9backed Yes	26c	207.72$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf5f…2184backed Yes	7c	200$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	16	25%4 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x778c…f3afbacked Yes	13c	200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70e3…5e8cbacked Yes	15c	200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-5.3wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x75a3…5fd5backed Yes	14c	200$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	6c	188.51$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.31	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2e57…462fbacked Yes	19c	184.21$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4219…6e2cbacked Yes	13c	180$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	63	25.4%16 W · 47 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5073…dc3bbacked Yes	30c	173.33$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3f24…fb69backed Yes	20c	172.74$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f4f…6232backed Yes	12c	170.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.52	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2496…07a0backed Yes	9c	164.34$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-81.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92df…fd4ebacked Yes	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4326…c3a8backed Yes	9c	150$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	174	34.5%60 W · 114 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd1b3…d866backed Yes	37c	146.15$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f25…0772backed Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e5f…525abacked Yes	22c	138.17$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf469…7aa9backed Yes	11c	136.36$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-52%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf3d…d571backed Yes	14c	135.71$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	53	17%9 W · 44 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5269…fb18backed Yes	19c	131.39$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	8c	130$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.31	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe29…b07ebacked Yes	16c	122.8$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7afa…5cb0backed Yes	12c	120.9$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	61	8.2%5 W · 56 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe11e…ff89backed Yes	11c	120.88$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9991…9480backed Yes	12c	109.94$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.35	87	11.5%10 W · 77 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb27b…09f4backed Yes	14c	109$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	27	0%0 W · 27 L	-3.6wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x20d1…fe63backed Yes	10c	102.8$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.28	78	21.8%17 W · 61 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63ea…2072backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	58	20.7%12 W · 46 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-46%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0479…6422backed Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.63	50	22%11 W · 39 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-36%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f5e…260cbacked Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6ae…c6e0backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	52	13.5%7 W · 45 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e58…a2eabacked Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf9a…4e95backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe53…9917backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	79	20.3%16 W · 63 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc950…ad4ebacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30d7…59c1backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	89	22.5%20 W · 69 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d51…eae8backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62d8…afccbacked Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.16per pick	28cpaid	-80.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5730…e2f6backed Yes	23c	92.39$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1259…cf66backed Yes	22c	90$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49ac…cd83backed Yes	19c	88.35$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c08…35b6backed Yes	20c	64.76$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x676e…eb0cbacked Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.12per pick	18cpaid	-80.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc510…4a06backed No	65c	40$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-55.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…ff57backed Yes	39c	38.25$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event