Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fee03c269452059a5b749d49b93d5d9d9d941ccf6b40061af7a7a2bc6cf99ff

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 28, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $188,374
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $47,470

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $188,374 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	55,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8433…5196backed Yes	0c	10,569$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.57	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	4,289$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.35	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	3,762$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.7	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeebf…d3ffbacked Yes	1c	3,234$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.88	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	1c	2,998$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.58	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed Yes	8c	2,120$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.02	103	25.2%26 W · 77 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ea9…a10bbacked Yes	7c	1,751$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.3	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-57.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	1c	1,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	1,482$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.83	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	1c	1,100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2496…07a0backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-81.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	6c	891.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x80fc…42c3backed Yes	2c	750$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	+53.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x676e…eb0cbacked Yes	7c	606.9$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.65	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.12per pick	18cpaid	-80.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f49…647fbacked Yes	7c	600$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bb1…f1e1backed Yes	9c	555.56$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2868…f46abacked Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9521…766bbacked Yes	4c	456.3$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	243	7%17 W · 226 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	441.06$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.48	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x05ec…7158backed Yes	11c	431.57$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.5	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcddc…63edbacked Yes	6c	416.66$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+301.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Yes	3c	369.37$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.08	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd87…dd8bbacked Yes	4c	363.71$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.55	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x675c…9678backed Yes	7c	276.41$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+1.7wins	+0.12per pick	16cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd440…8e73backed Yes	9c	256.94$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0ce…5839backed Yes	9c	232$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.48	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf3d…d571backed Yes	9c	226.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	53	17%9 W · 44 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x755d…6accbacked Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93c4…7599backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	230	17%39 W · 191 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5999…1416backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event