TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$174,550
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$80,925

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $174,550 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes0c55,000$80 inLost-$808206.6%54 W · 766 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9991…9480backed Yes0c16,849$83 inLost-$82.98711.5%10 W · 77 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c6,854$13 inLost-$13.411,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes0c4,795$16 inLost-$15.531,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes0c4,000$11 inLost-$1145511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf503…39e2backed Yes1c2,195$24 inLost-$24.43116.1%5 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-17.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes2c1,282$24 inLost-$24.132,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72f8…5d4dbacked Yes3c1,000$30 inLost-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x816e…c70fbacked Yes3c1,000$30 inLost-$3030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdb8…2d07backed Yes3c1,000$30 inLost-$3030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a41…915ebacked Yes7c1,000$70 inLost-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x581c…9283backed Yes7c1,000$70 inLost-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b1f…69e3backed Yes7c1,000$70 inLost-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8abe…d475backed Yes3c1,000$30 inLost-$3030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfa2…69fcbacked Yes3c1,000$30 inLost-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa099…dd5dbacked Yes7c1,000$70 inLost-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdee…2fd5backed Yes7c1,000$70 inLost-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6da…d758backed Yes7c1,000$70 inLost-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bb1…f1e1backed Yes6c812.82$50 inLost-$503912.8%5 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-49.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c643.43$19 inLost-$18.942,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcc8…1461backed Yes8c279.07$22 inLost-$22.11156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick17cpaid-55.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.