TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x37c2…e932

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
29
Categories scored
3
Categories below 50
0

Best Category: World Politics, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 54 out of 100; worst Middle East at 51.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST2317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$21.31
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$25.77
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+1,436.4%+$287.29
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 22–August 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
Will Elon tweet 550–574 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 390–404 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$19
Will Elon tweet 345–359 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 18–25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 18–25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 4–11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 4–11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times June 27–July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times June 27–July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT+317.9%+$63.59
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$214Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$213.96
Will Elon tweet 230 or more times May 30–June 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$715Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT+123.6%+$884.13
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 16–23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT+150.4%+$180.46
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 16–23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 16–23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$28
All 23 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+70.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$122.58
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$26
All 2 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.