Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 16–23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a5c7546c2d8ac9d44333615a8364b87b4c691d182becc7f7ed1fe268f60f9cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $289,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $148,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $289,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 11,698$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.56 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,406$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 0c | 9,999$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea47…72f9backed Yes | 2c | 9,490$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 8,294$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.12 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 0c | 7,408$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 2c | 6,026$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.61 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 2c | 5,461$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.28 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes | 4c | 5,246$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 118 | 11%13 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 3c | 5,198$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.42 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 3c | 4,032$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.76 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb38…ce37backed Yes | 8c | 3,847$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fee…54fabacked Yes | 1c | 3,779$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,972$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.43 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…81fabacked Yes | 5c | 2,967$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…2226backed Yes | 6c | 2,730$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3058…e6ffbacked Yes | 1c | 2,664$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…505ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,466$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…a17bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 95 | 11.6%11 W · 84 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900a…65d0backed Yes | 1c | 2,276$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3531…d848backed Yes | 5c | 2,108$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34e3…cb8abacked Yes | 14c | 2,010$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.51 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7b…9687backed Yes | 5c | 1,974$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…114bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,858$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.4 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc028…9349backed Yes | 6c | 1,592$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.69 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed Yes | 5c | 1,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…0c9abacked Yes | 5c | 1,498$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 4c | 1,316$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2450…d38fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,309$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aba…2346backed Yes | 2c | 1,246$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…abc3backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47bb…ef0dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,173$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f9…dbb5backed Yes | 11c | 1,053$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +106.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 8c | 1,006$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.35 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x097f…2d35backed Yes | 5c | 921.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54e4…5d21backed Yes | 5c | 888.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 3c | 880$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 4c | 875.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 4c | 868.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe6…7489backed Yes | 6c | 818.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 2c | 814.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 8c | 784.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb35d…536cbacked Yes | 3c | 782.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Yes | 7c | 755.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41dc…9c3dbacked Yes | 2c | 749.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 8c | 736.11$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.96 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…f371backed Yes | 4c | 721.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes | 2c | 711.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 92 | 29.3%27 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 4c | 686.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee1a…b41cbacked Yes | 5c | 680.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 630.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 8c | 606.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c2…29f9backed Yes | 5c | 600$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6da5…a86bbacked Yes | 5c | 535.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3516…05a0backed Yes | 6c | 519.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3845…4c75backed Yes | 8c | 518.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f26…f484backed Yes | 4c | 516.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc186…a1a4backed Yes | 8c | 510.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cd…ced6backed Yes | 4c | 495.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…8e97backed Yes | 10c | 493.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 8c | 492.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 486$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa34…689bbacked Yes | 10c | 484.18$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5032…d300backed Yes | 6c | 444$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe30…3e4dbacked Yes | 5c | 440.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…18abbacked Yes | 5c | 403.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f1…93a8backed Yes | 3c | 379.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…69b0backed Yes | 5c | 373.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed Yes | 7c | 367.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd92…0222backed Yes | 12c | 360$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 3c | 351.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…2370backed Yes | 12c | 346.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes | 14c | 346$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda23…a7ccbacked Yes | 6c | 318.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…7f48backed Yes | 7c | 305.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 10c | 302.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26d3…634fbacked Yes | 6c | 301.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…456fbacked Yes | 3c | 291.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2f…dd1cbacked Yes | 3c | 286$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 5c | 285.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e8…6297backed Yes | 8c | 237.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x752c…49f4backed Yes | 8c | 235.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…7e53backed Yes | 5c | 231.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…9c2abacked Yes | 7c | 222.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb208…90f7backed Yes | 6c | 214.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602f…20e1backed Yes | 6c | 212.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c2…e932backed Yes | 9c | 211$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4abe…7c2fbacked Yes | 6c | 206.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34a…8251backed Yes | 7c | 175.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 12c | 138$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…9006backed Yes | 15c | 137.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb5…abf4backed Yes | 15c | 131.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 10c | 110.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 10c | 109$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9051…f1cfbacked Yes | 14c | 82.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 16–23?this page
- Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 16–23?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 16–23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.