Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 16–23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0eeb5b8724035056461244e18c81f6c703ad88950b8d971b63b2d4cf6fab6a32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $350,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $208,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $350,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 209 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 3c | 28,155$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.66 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 3c | 20,082$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.11 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 0c | 13,091$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 6c | 9,619$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.87 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 9,039$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.97 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 3c | 8,679$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.18 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 3c | 8,361$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.11 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 7,353$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 4,584$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.76 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 4,554$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.17 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34e3…cb8abacked Yes | 7c | 4,514$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa958…de3dbacked Yes | 5c | 4,413$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.64 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 20c | 4,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.99 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6da5…a86bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,925$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 6c | 3,814$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.72 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 6c | 3,686$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.64 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d0…c293backed Yes | 7c | 3,188$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 6c | 2,469$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.14 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31be…c9debacked Yes | 7c | 2,463$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…a17bbacked Yes | 20c | 2,400$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.38 | 95 | 11.6%11 W · 84 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd9…d46ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,273$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…114bbacked Yes | 8c | 2,167$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.61 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 3c | 2,112$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa22d…ea45backed Yes | 20c | 1,662$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1937…6e8fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,655$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c4…6648backed Yes | 11c | 1,615$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…abc3backed Yes | 6c | 1,600$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.47 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 10c | 1,558$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.9 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8498…d219backed Yes | 6c | 1,531$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.1 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 80c | 1,524$1,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.22 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3c…5467backed Yes | 5c | 1,524$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.77 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 7c | 1,507$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd48…db01backed Yes | 20c | 1,476$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.48 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…ab4fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,440$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee4…71e5backed Yes | 10c | 1,438$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…d1bbbacked Yes | 5c | 1,422$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.53 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 6c | 1,400$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c0…c87cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,381$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…e9c1backed Yes | 7c | 1,375$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed No | 78c | 1,300$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.99 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x642b…abccbacked Yes | 13c | 1,276$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 16c | 1,230$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.3 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 3c | 1,136$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 4c | 1,056$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…1499backed Yes | 5c | 1,015$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.01 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…9dafbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 6c | 999.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb35d…536cbacked Yes | 5c | 997.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 991.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e49…b263backed Yes | 1c | 920.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 895.59$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.93 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…9684backed Yes | 14c | 888.22$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…88f4backed Yes | 2c | 876.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…8b79backed Yes | 12c | 850$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf34a…1e22backed Yes | 2c | 802.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e0…8d86backed Yes | 2c | 800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 6c | 795.91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f0…4c6dbacked Yes | 7c | 730.4$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ad11backed Yes | 9c | 703.69$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.62 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Yes | 20c | 699.98$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.99 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 18c | 604.35$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.7 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1b…8ac9backed Yes | 13c | 599.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 9c | 599.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Yes | 2c | 580.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0532…9bbabacked Yes | 10c | 577.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3235…6e6cbacked Yes | 3c | 571.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…d033backed Yes | 9c | 560.61$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 12c | 549.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc49…3d89backed Yes | 6c | 540.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa34…689bbacked Yes | 18c | 532.58$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.38 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33b2…3d6fbacked Yes | 5c | 506.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47bb…ef0dbacked Yes | 20c | 503.4$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.68 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…cf69backed Yes | 11c | 459.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe26a…f740backed Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584c…f44fbacked Yes | 6c | 430.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f6…6abdbacked Yes | 5c | 427.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…89c2backed Yes | 4c | 408.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5467…8843backed Yes | 5c | 400.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 3c | 400.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 9c | 400.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e7…98e2backed Yes | 6c | 395.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53dd…2a64backed Yes | 9c | 382.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb20…ef0abacked Yes | 7c | 357.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0942…0155backed Yes | 6c | 355.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2e…a4a6backed Yes | 4c | 349.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fee…54fabacked Yes | 6c | 346.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…4693backed Yes | 6c | 343.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba0…5e7fbacked Yes | 5c | 338.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 5c | 333$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9c…c5ebbacked Yes | 3c | 332.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…479fbacked Yes | 13c | 326.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 16–23?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 16–23?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 16–23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.