Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 16–23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90ed965b6c94bfe9925b435d77052c794115472d75b9e9f24fd9206ba38824b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $304,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $171,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $304,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 3c | 9,497$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.74 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 7c | 8,710$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.57 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 1c | 8,076$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.77 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 6,578$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.14 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,464$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.53 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 12c | 6,075$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.19 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a40…d801backed Yes | 2c | 5,689$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 5c | 5,074$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.06 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb38…ce37backed Yes | 22c | 4,632$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 79c | 4,500$3,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.98 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 8c | 4,495$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.28 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 9c | 4,000$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.62 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed Yes | 1c | 3,568$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 0c | 3,137$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes | 11c | 3,077$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 118 | 11%13 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 1c | 2,972$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 2c | 2,821$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.76 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,804$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…5585backed Yes | 3c | 2,550$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 6c | 2,500$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.5 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…abc3backed Yes | 5c | 2,500$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.72 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…a17bbacked Yes | 15c | 2,400$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.64 | 95 | 11.6%11 W · 84 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6028…10eebacked Yes | 1c | 2,346$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 15c | 2,228$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.77 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 10c | 2,194$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.22 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…a403backed Yes | 1c | 2,115$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 9c | 2,115$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 15c | 2,082$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.24 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 3c | 2,045$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.68 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x642b…abccbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 1,909$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.25 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 79c | 1,693$1,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.96 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,641$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.06 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34e3…cb8abacked Yes | 10c | 1,516$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa73a…fd52backed Yes | 1c | 1,503$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e0…04a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,439$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,412$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.08 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f26…f484backed Yes | 11c | 1,320$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…8e97backed Yes | 12c | 1,309$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.24 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 9c | 1,289$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.8 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 15c | 1,281$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.05 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x097f…2d35backed Yes | 9c | 1,232$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 1,218$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.46 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…505ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,071$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 8c | 1,052$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.15 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 16c | 1,020$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.14 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ae…5e2fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,010$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa16f…6df1backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.84 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…a596backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 25c | 967.72$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.44 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb20…ef0abacked Yes | 2c | 919.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 10c | 856.5$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…9684backed Yes | 2c | 823.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…0c9abacked Yes | 7c | 815.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…cf69backed Yes | 4c | 731.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 7c | 707.47$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 17c | 674.04$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.53 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d0…c293backed Yes | 12c | 636.21$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 14c | 620.37$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.44 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…9006backed Yes | 23c | 600.12$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c2…29f9backed Yes | 15c | 599.91$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 10c | 579.17$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…9c04backed Yes | 6c | 559.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7784…0455backed Yes | 20c | 508.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x643e…1f65backed Yes | 10c | 503.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa50…8756backed Yes | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.01 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 15c | 444.15$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe26a…f740backed Yes | 23c | 434.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…2370backed Yes | 9c | 425.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Yes | 12c | 421.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…f371backed Yes | 12c | 418.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9051…f1cfbacked Yes | 4c | 404.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ad11backed Yes | 4c | 399.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed Yes | 16c | 398.53$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 5c | 376.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 6c | 375.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe341…273bbacked Yes | 8c | 355.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a92…65ecbacked Yes | 13c | 352.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…2b2dbacked Yes | 30c | 332.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fee…54fabacked Yes | 6c | 327.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…c824backed Yes | 4c | 320.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…376dbacked Yes | 11c | 310$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2988…7121backed Yes | 10c | 305.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda23…a7ccbacked Yes | 14c | 303.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 8c | 300.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e0…8d86backed No | 77c | 296.01$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…8412backed Yes | 7c | 286.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 15.5%13 W · 71 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1b…7b78backed Yes | 10c | 282.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 16c | 279.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b3…bd83backed Yes | 18c | 268.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…81fabacked Yes | 15c | 264.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…7f48backed Yes | 8c | 262.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2f…dd1cbacked Yes | 19c | 257.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea1e…4be5backed Yes | 10c | 255.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 23cpaid | +147.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77c6…8019backed Yes | 6c | 251.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 16–23?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 16–23?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 16–23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.