Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 16–23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ccaeabc0749ee0ca90407c9f7fd485867f4a69cf3b31f0de74344849e1ea4e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $421,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $315,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $421,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 253 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 9c | 35,020$3,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,007.65 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53dd…2a64backed Yes | 0c | 20,077$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 14,698$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 4c | 11,963$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.31 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 21c | 6,380$1,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,335.43 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 2c | 5,553$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 10c | 5,066$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.36 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 10c | 5,000$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.53 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 4,932$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.9 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 79c | 4,183$3,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.54 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 10c | 4,060$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.86 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 18c | 4,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cea…4eccbacked Yes | 13c | 3,910$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.3 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed No | 76c | 3,793$2,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.7 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 12c | 3,303$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.41 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 14c | 3,300$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 12c | 3,263$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.3 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 15c | 3,250$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.93 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba6…79d3backed Yes | 31c | 3,248$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 16c | 2,916$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.95 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 8c | 2,662$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.13 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x642b…abccbacked Yes | 24c | 2,568$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.72 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 12c | 2,502$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.7 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 18c | 2,404$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.13 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…a17bbacked Yes | 17c | 2,400$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 95 | 11.6%11 W · 84 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d0…c293backed Yes | 23c | 2,350$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe935…778dbacked Yes | 21c | 2,291$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.02 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,200$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.35 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 2,110$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.38 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Yes | 19c | 2,000$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.98 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb76…b3efbacked Yes | 37c | 1,942$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 3c | 1,910$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 5c | 1,901$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.3 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46e4…51debacked Yes | 1c | 1,894$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…2b2dbacked No | 78c | 1,820$1,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.59 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,758$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…abc3backed Yes | 7c | 1,666$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.41 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…27b9backed Yes | 17c | 1,612$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.1 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6da5…a86bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,599$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34e3…cb8abacked Yes | 20c | 1,578$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.21 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…114bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,521$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaa…0e22backed Yes | 4c | 1,332$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.02 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe26a…f740backed Yes | 7c | 1,316$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…d033backed Yes | 3c | 1,265$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 13c | 1,261$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.66 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3068…7d29backed Yes | 20c | 1,260$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb6…89acbacked Yes | 21c | 1,197$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 1,172$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.21 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…d1bbbacked Yes | 25c | 1,159$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.25 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 79c | 1,119$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.8 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Yes | 5c | 1,050$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c10…6747backed Yes | 10c | 1,045$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc378…e4a8backed Yes | 36c | 1,039$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.42 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d99…854fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,004$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.97 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbb…377abacked Yes | 25c | 1,000$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb995…5f38backed Yes | 4c | 997.16$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 16c | 994.36$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.55 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5947…8bdabacked Yes | 14c | 920.29$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…1499backed Yes | 13c | 915.98$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.46 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a46…5b84backed Yes | 26c | 852.3$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.21 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ad11backed Yes | 17c | 826.74$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.68 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 10c | 815$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6b…fdbbbacked Yes | 30c | 800$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 8c | 750$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.72 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…9dafbacked Yes | 6c | 750$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49bc…8933backed Yes | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 18c | 730.03$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.39 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…81fabacked Yes | 16c | 718.75$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c0…c87cbacked Yes | 10c | 709.92$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…00c4backed Yes | 15c | 700$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed No | 78c | 699.99$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 10c | 699.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed Yes | 17c | 688.05$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.97 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8c…bfefbacked No | 80c | 675$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x366c…ec01backed Yes | 18c | 662.19$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.9 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +107.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c4…6648backed Yes | 14c | 656.75$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Yes | 18c | 601.23$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.22 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 600.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 19c | 581.4$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.47 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31be…c9debacked Yes | 23c | 577.49$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.09 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd9…d46ebacked Yes | 18c | 558.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 12c | 550$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.75 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 14c | 549.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.7 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…8e97backed Yes | 20c | 523.31$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.98 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1af2…0cb2backed Yes | 20c | 509.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 27cpaid | +156.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 27c | 509.49$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa958…de3dbacked Yes | 20c | 506.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee4…71e5backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…9c04backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked No | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 16c | 499.73$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.52 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…376dbacked Yes | 21c | 477.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.46 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 80c | 467.02$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.78 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 16c | 465.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.56 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 31c | 451.64$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.2 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c6…8019backed Yes | 16c | 405.61$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 10c | 393.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 16–23?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 16–23?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 16–23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.