Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 16–23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc501712fedca569d942bf9ec6cab9e53da03c0c69942807a6d220af380086732
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $299,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $190,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $299,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 2c | 23,673$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.98 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5209…d3ddbacked Yes | 0c | 14,920$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,678$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d0…c293backed Yes | 0c | 10,016$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 4c | 6,100$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.86 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 0c | 6,072$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ae…fa6abacked Yes | 1c | 5,888$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac9…69cfbacked Yes | 1c | 5,500$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 1c | 4,825$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 1c | 4,800$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,359$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 1c | 4,098$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 1c | 3,503$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 3,079$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 2,853$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…a17bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 95 | 11.6%11 W · 84 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 3c | 1,832$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 4c | 1,727$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.38 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 6c | 1,501$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.58 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 1c | 1,013$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…c824backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 2c | 999.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e25…09fbbacked Yes | 2c | 852$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x642b…abccbacked Yes | 2c | 841.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 2c | 810.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb26…94ddbacked Yes | 4c | 769.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 699.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 2c | 640.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025d…1a72backed Yes | 2c | 400.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 3c | 377.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 282 | 11%31 W · 251 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ad11backed Yes | 4c | 366.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 16–23?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 16–23?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 16–23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.