TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xbb24…a17b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
219
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Premier League, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 51 out of 100; worst NBA at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 28, 2025, EST9511.6%11 W · 84 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 95 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+68.2%+$95.83
Will Elon tweet 400 or more times August 29–September 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$218.22
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+37%+$27
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 16–23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$647Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$647.35
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 16–23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 16–23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$488Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$487.73
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 16–23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$96
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 16–23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$1,163Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT+158.4%+$1,841.87
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 16–23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$96
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 16–23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$480Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$480.38
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 16–23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$317Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$316.83
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 16–23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$408Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$408
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 16–23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$365Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$364.64
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 16–23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$96
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 16–23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$70.28
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 2–9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 2–9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.04
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$94.71
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 2–9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$95
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 2–9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$968Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2025, EDT+106.4%+$1,029.63
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$180
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 2–9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$207.1
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 2–9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$153.01
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times April 25–May 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT+900%+$630
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times April 25–May 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$49
Showing 25 of 95 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2025, EST8765.5%57 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 87 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Clippers vs. Jazzbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2025, EST+26.6%+$5.32
Heat vs. Mavericksbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Grizzlies vs. Clippersbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Warriors vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+96.1%+$19.22
Lakers vs. Jazzbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Kings vs. Pelicansbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+27.8%+$5.73
Bucks vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Pacers vs. Wizardsbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+25%+$5
Knicks vs. Pacersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+26.6%+$5.32
Raptors vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2025, EST+28.2%+$5.64
Celtics vs. Heatbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2025, EST+37%+$7.4
Hawks vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2025, EST+29.9%+$5.97
Raptors vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST+26.6%+$5.32
Hornets vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST+26.6%+$5.32
Pelicans vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST+35.1%+$7.03
Nuggets vs. Sunsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST+42.9%+$8.57
Celtics vs. Knicksbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST+33.2%+$6.64
Thunder vs. Grizzliesbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST+36%+$7.2
Warriors vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolvesbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Spurs vs. Magicbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Jazz vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST+29.9%+$5.97
76ers vs. Pistonsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Showing 25 of 87 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2025, EST2373.9%17 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+2.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kraken vs. Flamesbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST-100%-$26.61
Penguins vs. Rangersbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST+38.9%+$7.78
Oilers vs. Blackhawksbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST+38.9%+$7.78
Stars vs. Ducksbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Devils vs. Penguinsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2025, EST+33.3%+$6.67
Blue Jackets vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2025, EST+28.2%+$5.64
Senators vs. Predatorsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST+38.9%+$7.78
Red Wings vs. Canucksbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST+47.1%+$9.41
Lightning vs. Blackhawksbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Sharks vs. Predatorsbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Red Wings vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+75.4%+$15.09
Penguins vs. Kingsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+35.1%+$7.03
Blues vs. Golden Knightsbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+56.6%+$11.33
Flames vs. Jetsbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST+37%+$36.99
Rangers vs. Utahbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Red Wings vs. Panthersbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2025, EST+29.9%+$29.87
Canadiens vs. Utahbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Sharks vs. Red Wingsbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2025, EST+26.6%+$26.58
Wild vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2025, EST+25.1%+$75.16
Ducks vs. Hurricanesbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2025, EST+30.1%+$90.22
Sharks vs. Utahbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2025, EST+58.7%+$117.46
Sabres vs. Senatorsbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2025, EST+28.2%+$22.42
Oilers vs. Penguinsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2025, EST+25%+$25
All 23 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 27, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bills vs. Chiefsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2025, EST+29.9%+$5.97
Commanders vs. Buccaneersbacked Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chelsea win on 2025-02-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST+35.1%+$7.03
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.