Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 2–9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bedaca7d17a565de42bbf4c0e25535396350bc6026adf1e6c633e3d42aadf63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $266,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $202,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $266,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 308 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x471a…0328backed No | 79c | 11,564$9,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,439.44 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 10c | 10,880$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.04 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 45c | 10,612$4,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,792.76 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 20c | 10,003$1,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,978.49 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 17c | 9,300$1,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,613.99 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 37c | 8,901$3,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,331.54 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…8814backed Yes | 49c | 4,370$2,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,129.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 45c | 4,336$1,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,964.67 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 4,215$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 28c | 4,000$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 14c | 3,800$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 5c | 3,274$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.11 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 30c | 2,994$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.69 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf518…1655backed Yes | 24c | 2,872$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.8 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -64%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae7…a0d1backed Yes | 54c | 2,845$1,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 39c | 2,823$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110.09 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…d82ebacked Yes | 15c | 2,518$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.63 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…13e7backed Yes | 14c | 2,300$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.2 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…7e5fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,245$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.18 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 43c | 2,150$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.75 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 24c | 2,063$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.14 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 2,029$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.55 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 36c | 2,007$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.22 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 45c | 1,941$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.39 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 18c | 1,759$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.41 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…9c04backed Yes | 6c | 1,519$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.52 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 46c | 1,463$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.09 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed Yes | 70c | 1,426$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 29c | 1,336$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.04 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 62c | 1,330$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.46 | 235 | 41.3%97 W · 138 L | -29.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x865e…d006backed Yes | 52c | 1,286$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 24c | 1,281$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.33 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…14f7backed Yes | 24c | 1,262$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.03 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,256$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.46 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 77c | 1,222$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.24 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 40c | 1,117$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.55 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a46…5b84backed Yes | 36c | 1,064$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.15 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 50c | 1,050$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.05 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 22c | 1,050$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 30c | 1,037$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.06 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 20c | 1,014$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.44 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…505ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…a17bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 95 | 11.6%11 W · 84 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9961…adcbbacked No | 52c | 949.83$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.07 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefd…abf6backed Yes | 49c | 925.7$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes | 44c | 920.74$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.75 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 6c | 825$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 6c | 822.11$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 52c | 792.5$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 23c | 781.47$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.85 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51df…c96ebacked Yes | 48c | 729.17$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ca…e168backed Yes | 32c | 720$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa124…4891backed Yes | 35c | 687.43$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 16c | 665.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.56 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 39c | 629.99$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.5 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Yes | 29c | 617.43$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.24 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 46c | 614.97$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.01 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 44c | 602.28$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.29 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Yes | 36c | 600$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…479fbacked Yes | 40c | 595.2$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.46 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 30c | 576.02$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.57 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9e…026dbacked No | 68c | 575$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…5efebacked Yes | 51c | 561.29$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 9c | 558.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 68c | 513.19$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.91 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 13c | 503.38$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.44 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…f823backed Yes | 69c | 500$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.31 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed Yes | 15c | 491.56$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.73 | 109 | 14.7%16 W · 93 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…272cbacked Yes | 65c | 473.5$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c4…001dbacked Yes | 52c | 472.81$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.6 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 20c | 456.34$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.58 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6b…12e7backed Yes | 13c | 456.12$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e5…dbc9backed Yes | 18c | 440$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 35c | 429.74$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.02 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +139.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…52ddbacked No | 68c | 420$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f5…25debacked Yes | 35c | 413.89$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 35c | 400$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…cefbbacked Yes | 23c | 398.95$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.76 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Yes | 41c | 387.07$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…60e9backed Yes | 7c | 385.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +128.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2431…51babacked Yes | 61c | 375.87$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6abd…9d3cbacked Yes | 65c | 366.81$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x642b…abccbacked Yes | 14c | 356.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47bb…ef0dbacked Yes | 28c | 352.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf920…95bdbacked Yes | 32c | 347.82$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.88 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 49c | 345.31$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 431 | 26.2%113 W · 318 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 21c | 335.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 64c | 323.52$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.86 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed Yes | 13c | 316.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…b904backed Yes | 65c | 309.38$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.1 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 22c | 300$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…7564backed Yes | 24c | 299.47$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.85 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 16c | 299.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 282 | 11%31 W · 251 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…376dbacked Yes | 24c | 299.19$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.82 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec28…10ebbacked Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2172…1bf1backed Yes | 70c | 287.6$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4964…4fddbacked Yes | 53c | 283.05$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.36 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9263…1999backed Yes | 5c | 277$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 98 | 1%1 W · 97 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 2–9?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 2–9?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 2–9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.