Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 2–9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd83452a703bea35292eb5b9507b25c685de1cbccf76f544d37151a44a7a3b5f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $408,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $362,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $408,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 340 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 41c | 19,610$8,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,550.59 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 29c | 15,420$4,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,983.14 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 3c | 13,556$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.09 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 14c | 9,384$1,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,097.18 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…1bd2backed Yes | 35c | 8,649$3,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,592.98 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 16c | 7,945$1,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,694.01 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 13c | 7,700$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,691 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 24c | 7,422$1,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,665.78 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 37c | 7,186$2,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,539.69 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 17c | 6,350$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,241.56 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 32c | 6,228$1,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,230.82 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 35c | 5,219$1,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,379.13 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed Yes | 58c | 4,570$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,919.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 50c | 4,159$2,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,082.82 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 75c | 3,918$2,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.58 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 30c | 3,543$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,474.95 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…14f7backed Yes | 25c | 3,137$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350.91 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 2,916$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,319.25 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked No | 0c | 2,790$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 17c | 2,668$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,205.63 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5377…e6dabacked Yes | 61c | 2,657$1,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.16 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b1…bcdbbacked Yes | 25c | 2,322$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,736.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9443…e5ecbacked Yes | 36c | 2,234$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,429.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…a17bbacked Yes | 48c | 1,997$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.63 | 95 | 11.6%11 W · 84 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 20c | 1,741$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.21 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 17c | 1,722$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,434.21 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 51c | 1,643$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.77 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a46…5b84backed Yes | 33c | 1,618$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.53 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…cefbbacked No | 44c | 1,604$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.12 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9961…adcbbacked No | 66c | 1,586$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.75 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 29c | 1,575$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.94 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 14c | 1,560$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,337.19 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 78c | 1,475$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.36 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 19c | 1,457$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.11 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…57d5backed Yes | 30c | 1,451$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.83 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…5e5abacked Yes | 74c | 1,351$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 61c | 1,321$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.44 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47bb…ef0dbacked Yes | 58c | 1,309$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.34 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 53c | 1,300$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 16c | 1,231$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.71 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf518…1655backed Yes | 26c | 1,215$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.43 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -64%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 28c | 1,213$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.94 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa124…4891backed Yes | 37c | 1,107$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.49 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…5efebacked Yes | 44c | 1,094$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Yes | 24c | 1,024$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.58 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 29c | 1,015$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.27 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…72a1backed Yes | 80c | 1,003$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.67 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Yes | 16c | 1,001$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.18 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…9dafbacked Yes | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69a…4ba7backed Yes | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c91…1971backed No | 71c | 999.99$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.39 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 27c | 998.13$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.58 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb0…5106backed No | 37c | 995$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 27c | 959.95$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.04 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 66c | 941.84$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.17 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Yes | 26c | 910.91$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.91 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…479fbacked Yes | 21c | 860.88$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.88 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…9c04backed Yes | 12c | 845.89$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.55 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 18c | 845.31$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.88 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 36c | 840.15$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.15 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00de…3e7dbacked Yes | 25c | 823.75$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.75 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4c…3742backed No | 61c | 810.03$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.73 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc0…b57bbacked No | 28c | 760$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6457…834fbacked No | 41c | 760$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 30c | 712.42$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.3 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked No | 71c | 705.14$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf920…95bdbacked Yes | 25c | 702.65$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.65 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 17c | 687.95$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.98 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 19c | 664.74$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.94 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes | 55c | 653.49$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.55 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02c4…001dbacked Yes | 54c | 647.22$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.22 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…3c32backed Yes | 19c | 645.62$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.42 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 6c | 641$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.55 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 626.8$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.32 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…505ebacked Yes | 32c | 625$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 53c | 614.98$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.18 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 45c | 613.27$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.43 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e5…dbc9backed Yes | 69c | 587.2$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.57 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…4d45backed No | 75c | 569.35$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.02 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 46c | 560.01$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.01 | 431 | 26.2%113 W · 318 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 14c | 555$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.3 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6abd…9d3cbacked Yes | 19c | 531.78$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.04 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd2…2518backed Yes | 48c | 528.2$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…0c6dbacked No | 68c | 514.34$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.38 | 84 | 13.1%11 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 13c | 500.37$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 29c | 500$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.15 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa0…1bf1backed No | 70c | 500$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed No | 65c | 500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x642b…abccbacked Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…c824backed Yes | 18c | 499.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.99 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes | 76c | 491.51$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.21 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 16c | 469.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.29 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 76c | 453.53$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.29 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x649d…88afbacked Yes | 63c | 445$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 29c | 436.35$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.4 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 22c | 433.33$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.66 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 73c | 426.66$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed No | 73c | 410.81$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 19c | 402.43$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.43 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 2–9?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 2–9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.