Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 2–9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7dc30f7c592d4237c53828507c1dc50c3f5decda4c3e37069f161edf692df7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $186,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $186,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 12,721$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6758…e6c3backed Yes | 0c | 12,136$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 3c | 10,413$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.15 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 4c | 7,750$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.46 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 3c | 6,795$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,038$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.63 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…77f7backed Yes | 0c | 5,073$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 3c | 4,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0321…7149backed Yes | 1c | 3,758$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 2c | 3,081$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x642b…abccbacked Yes | 10c | 2,612$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 6c | 2,094$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.52 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 1c | 1,618$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 1,434$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 8c | 1,400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 10c | 1,201$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.38 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3235…6e6cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,181$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 3c | 1,050$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Yes | 13c | 1,001$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.29 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 2c | 882.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 235 | 41.3%97 W · 138 L | -29.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa124…4891backed Yes | 14c | 708.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 4c | 700$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 3c | 581.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 385$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2310…a857backed Yes | 12c | 338.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b86…53d7backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e8…6297backed Yes | 11c | 180.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68e5…c63abacked Yes | 13c | 159.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb205…7cd7backed Yes | 16c | 126.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7425…e4f0backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…479fbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 2–9?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 2–9?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 2–9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.