Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 2–9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbda367f1f2b5cd6243a181b56f7630b64cd9f099537546fba004e2b3b03a7bb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $345,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $164,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $345,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 3c | 43,760$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.83 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 2c | 20,882$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.36 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 7c | 18,510$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,274.53 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 14c | 10,006$1,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a98…13cabacked Yes | 0c | 8,521$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 8,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd854…22bfbacked Yes | 0c | 7,995$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 1c | 6,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 5,885$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.17 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…3963backed Yes | 1c | 4,884$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 2cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 13c | 4,609$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.98 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 3,147$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.26 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,954$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb112…b6d9backed Yes | 21c | 2,780$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 4c | 2,525$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.59 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 4c | 2,499$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.99 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 12c | 2,220$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 7c | 2,215$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.38 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 13c | 2,178$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.56 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 14c | 2,153$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.54 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…a17bbacked Yes | 10c | 2,001$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.1 | 95 | 11.6%11 W · 84 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…14f7backed Yes | 10c | 1,960$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,563$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.68 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 6c | 1,553$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.06 | 235 | 41.3%97 W · 138 L | -29.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xabd3…2452backed Yes | 3c | 1,506$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…8412backed Yes | 5c | 1,483$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.83 | 84 | 15.5%13 W · 71 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 13c | 1,400$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,315$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed Yes | 7c | 1,309$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.09 | 109 | 14.7%16 W · 93 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 1,238$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.5 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0321…7149backed Yes | 2c | 1,188$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 18c | 1,092$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.5 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…13e7backed Yes | 15c | 1,080$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.94 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa088…d438backed Yes | 17c | 1,054$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 4c | 1,050$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 580 | 11.4%66 W · 514 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed Yes | 5c | 894.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb6…773dbacked Yes | 6c | 886.59$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 20c | 767.06$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.86 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 7c | 740.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae09…1f46backed Yes | 3c | 719.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe44…2f17backed Yes | 3c | 719.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 77c | 699.98$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x752f…a33cbacked Yes | 2c | 691.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x103f…b237backed Yes | 4c | 659.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3789…c044backed Yes | 23c | 613.02$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8d…1be3backed Yes | 2c | 602.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2460…9ccfbacked Yes | 6c | 590$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…91b6backed Yes | 4c | 502.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ad11backed Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 18c | 499.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e8…6297backed Yes | 8c | 496.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa124…4891backed Yes | 23c | 487.57$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 2c | 483.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 4c | 452.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3836…8660backed Yes | 2c | 448.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed No | 79c | 445$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.45 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 439.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52e1…b491backed Yes | 3c | 434.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 21c | 429.52$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…9c04backed Yes | 5c | 400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7173…16abbacked Yes | 3c | 398.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a17…0389backed Yes | 16c | 369.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587f…7765backed Yes | 19c | 334.22$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 8c | 326$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked Yes | 4c | 321.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00de…3e7dbacked Yes | 3c | 312.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd5…668abacked Yes | 6c | 297.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 4c | 297.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe795…a993backed Yes | 16c | 281.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44e6…e40dbacked Yes | 23c | 256.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…8900backed Yes | 8c | 250.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…f8bcbacked Yes | 21c | 238.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865e…d006backed Yes | 21c | 232.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 16c | 230$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc2…05f0backed Yes | 6c | 229$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaa…0e22backed Yes | 9c | 207.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b86…53d7backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa4…0821backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…a7bfbacked Yes | 24c | 186.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf518…1655backed Yes | 19c | 179.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -64%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3382…67cbbacked Yes | 17c | 169.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…28a8backed Yes | 21c | 150$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fd…736abacked Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8004…0af6backed Yes | 8c | 130.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1eb…89a4backed Yes | 20c | 121.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…3c32backed Yes | 16c | 119.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…479fbacked Yes | 18c | 119.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d47…d9bfbacked Yes | 20c | 119.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb778…f2f0backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…bc2dbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602f…20e1backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 430 | 27%116 W · 314 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…c64dbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 151 | 64.9%98 W · 53 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 2–9?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 2–9?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 2–9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.