Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 2–9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14ebc0ede61a12aaad2da1c7c591376ab8a61b9e71c671de49fc653ce6e1999f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $390,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $237,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $390,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 11c | 20,128$2,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,239.43 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 2c | 14,759$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.43 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 2c | 13,358$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.75 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb711…0f1ebacked Yes | 0c | 12,942$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 10,544$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…7340backed Yes | 3c | 9,249$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.19 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 8,246$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.38 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…9dafbacked Yes | 1c | 6,500$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb6…773dbacked Yes | 13c | 6,255$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.66 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 2c | 5,767$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.31 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 5c | 5,411$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.73 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 10c | 4,569$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.31 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c0…90f5backed Yes | 7c | 4,561$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.04 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…1a76backed Yes | 0c | 4,338$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 8c | 4,208$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.86 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcac5…590ebacked Yes | 19c | 4,128$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1614…68fabacked Yes | 0c | 3,946$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 13c | 3,276$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.88 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 3c | 3,006$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.81 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 2,922$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.73 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 5c | 2,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 2c | 2,157$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 13c | 2,109$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.74 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x642b…abccbacked Yes | 11c | 2,030$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47bb…ef0dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,836$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc511…a157backed Yes | 1c | 1,790$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…8412backed Yes | 6c | 1,766$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.49 | 84 | 15.5%13 W · 71 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 4c | 1,723$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.15 | 235 | 41.3%97 W · 138 L | -29.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed Yes | 7c | 1,721$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,660$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.51 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed Yes | 2c | 1,611$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf518…1655backed Yes | 16c | 1,514$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.3 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -64%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,500$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.1 | 118 | 10.2%12 W · 106 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…eaf6backed Yes | 1c | 1,438$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,405$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…b09ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,400$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.27 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 1,378$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 15c | 1,050$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd68d…ad25backed Yes | 1c | 1,033$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe607…4f12backed Yes | 1c | 1,015$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…ab4fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,013$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d01…083fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,007$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…c824backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…f823backed Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 12c | 999$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.89 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0357…070dbacked Yes | 2c | 985.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…b3a8backed Yes | 1c | 936.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9944…b035backed Yes | 3c | 909.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85e…2aebbacked Yes | 16c | 856.31$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.01 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 3c | 799.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3836…8660backed Yes | 10c | 794.56$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.15 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed36…a67cbacked No | 80c | 793.72$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.93 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 3c | 784.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 8.8%5 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 778.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…ec13backed Yes | 16c | 773.71$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 22c | 750.98$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.2 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ad11backed Yes | 17c | 750$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.56 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b96…301fbacked Yes | 2c | 748$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 23c | 725.42$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.87 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 21c | 720$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.4 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e90…bd93backed Yes | 2c | 715.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 10c | 710.3$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.9 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe795…a993backed Yes | 7c | 707.15$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 23c | 699.31$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.01 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82b8…f114backed Yes | 2c | 661.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…3c32backed Yes | 7c | 647.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2260…9fcdbacked Yes | 7c | 629.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 14c | 614.16$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.94 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 14c | 590$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.15 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 10c | 524.48$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…abc3backed Yes | 5c | 501.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 14c | 500.08$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.53 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5dc…0d98backed Yes | 14c | 500$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe44…2f17backed Yes | 4c | 485.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8863…34e3backed Yes | 20c | 464.85$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 15cpaid | +222.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 9c | 440.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb904…c3c1backed Yes | 3c | 439.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 5c | 413.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…b63fbacked Yes | 11c | 400$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 5c | 399.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 9c | 387.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 4c | 382$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 20c | 371.65$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3782…b870backed Yes | 30c | 365.94$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6074…965bbacked Yes | 29c | 349.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa090…c736backed Yes | 4c | 345.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b01…c35fbacked Yes | 6c | 337$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…3b0cbacked Yes | 18c | 306.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.49 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31f1…382fbacked Yes | 18c | 304.95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa4…0821backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…479fbacked Yes | 16c | 298.34$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e25…09fbbacked Yes | 4c | 278.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaa…0e22backed Yes | 5c | 247.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 13c | 247$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 18c | 242.27$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 16c | 233$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 5c | 229.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 80c | 222.42$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 2–9?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 2–9?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 2–9?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 2–9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.