UFC · resolved market
Jackson vs. Marcos
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b65cdc10d035b47062611372d4472d9df08c28cba776191be8aa3cedbb70907
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jacksonof Jackson, Marcos
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x407c…6778backed Marcos | 34c | 32,674$11,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,109.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516c…7082backed Jackson | 66c | 32,674$21,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,109.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Jackson | 70c | 17,956$12,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,386.71 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe653…c4a7backed Marcos | 30c | 14,113$4,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,233.98 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…decbbacked Marcos | 30c | 5,433$1,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,630.02 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Marcos | 35c | 3,045$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.36 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Marcos | 35c | 2,019$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.65 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Jackson | 70c | 1,853$1,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.86 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed Jackson | 70c | 1,429$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.57 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Jackson | 66c | 1,210$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.43 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Marcos | 30c | 1,022$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.62 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…869bbacked Jackson | 70c | 1,017$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.9 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Marcos | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Marcos | 33c | 999.97$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.99 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf586…f614backed Jackson | 72c | 915.83$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.43 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Jackson | 71c | 833$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.98 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Jackson | 71c | 704.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.23 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Marcos | 34c | 666$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.44 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Marcos | 9c | 649.87$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.77 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…a17bbacked Jackson | 79c | 577.5$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbffc…1f45backed Jackson | 70c | 571.43$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.43 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Jackson | 64c | 539.15$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.15 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Jackson | 64c | 472.44$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.47 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Jackson | 69c | 467.68$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.98 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Jackson | 67c | 410.12$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.34 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Marcos | 29c | 382.77$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.48 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Jackson | 66c | 380.29$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.29 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Marcos | 30c | 366.67$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Marcos | 31c | 365.63$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…072bbacked Marcos | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Jackson | 71c | 283$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.07 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Marcos | 30c | 279$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Jackson | 65c | 255.11$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Marcos | 33c | 250$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.5 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…084cbacked Jackson | 66c | 247.65$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Jackson | 66c | 240$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Marcos | 28c | 233.67$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.43 | 88 | 26.1%23 W · 65 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Jackson | 71c | 221$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.17 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…5c26backed Jackson | 71c | 215.23$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Jackson | 65c | 203$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.73 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed Jackson | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd16…0be8backed Marcos | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Marcos | 35c | 199.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x240e…5606backed Marcos | 31c | 160.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…6d3bbacked Jackson | 65c | 160$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Marcos | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29dc…bf90backed Marcos | 34c | 135.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8d…c5c9backed Marcos | 31c | 114.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Jackson | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed Jackson | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8df6…4462backed Marcos | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Marcos | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Marcos | 36c | 97.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Jackson | 65c | 92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…9a24backed Jackson | 65c | 86.15$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Jackson | 65c | 82.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Marcos | 34c | 79.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…ecbfbacked Jackson | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Marcos | 29c | 73.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Marcos | 31c | 67.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Marcos | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x172b…e2cdbacked Jackson | 70c | 65.71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…757dbacked Marcos | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Marcos | 32c | 52.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…ebd1backed Marcos | 38c | 52.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Jackson | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff4…161bbacked Marcos | 33c | 48.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6579…23ddbacked Jackson | 68c | 32.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Marcos | 32c | 32.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 158 | 39.2%62 W · 96 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3d…25b7backed Jackson | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafe1…7d0dbacked Jackson | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.28per pick | 64cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x025f…c1cfbacked Jackson | 78c | 18.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Jackson | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jackson vs. Marcosthis page
- Bolanos vs. LeLe won
- Loder vs. BekoevBekoev won
- Miller vs. PetrovićMiller won
- Petersen vs. MayesPetersen won
- Ponzinibbio vs. RodriguezRodriguez won
- Rodriguez vs. RobertsonRobertson won
- Sandhagen vs. FigueiredoSandhagen won
- Santos vs. TateSantos won
- Smotherman vs. Sidey Sidey won
- Stephens vs. JonesJones won
- de Ridder vs. Nickalde Ridder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.