UFC · resolved market
Santos vs. Tate
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9a462b0bb43df396abe7b47e84b9b3ebfd3ab6fde7aeb86d78c11ed1412ef1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Santosof Santos, Tate
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $165,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $180,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeee4…fe63backed Santos | 47c | 32,533$15,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,242.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd781…b3e9backed Tate | 53c | 32,533$17,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,242.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6f…737fbacked Santos | 45c | 31,031$13,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,067.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +146.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e45…8953backed Tate | 55c | 31,031$17,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,067.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Santos | 40c | 12,628$5,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,560.96 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…ba70backed Tate | 62c | 4,713$2,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,920.22 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x811f…e83ebacked Tate | 60c | 3,414$2,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,042.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Tate | 59c | 2,800$1,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,651.99 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Santos | 36c | 1,392$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.96 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Santos | 51c | 1,381$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.78 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Santos | 37c | 1,175$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.86 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…78f5backed Tate | 58c | 1,111$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 65cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Tate | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Tate | 59c | 974.58$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d8…b6ddbacked Tate | 60c | 773.33$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Tate | 58c | 688.56$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Santos | 41c | 599.99$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.99 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Tate | 59c | 529.19$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.9 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Santos | 42c | 500.38$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.68 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x172b…e2cdbacked Tate | 63c | 440.17$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.31 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9c…900fbacked Tate | 34c | 415.17$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.21 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Tate | 61c | 328.21$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.21 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Santos | 39c | 328.21$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.21 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x240e…5606backed Santos | 42c | 317.24$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2d…8f7bbacked Tate | 11c | 282.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed Santos | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Tate | 59c | 250$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Tate | 19c | 225$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Tate | 32c | 225$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Santos | 43c | 220.2$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.55 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…3201backed Tate | 59c | 202.95$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.74 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Santos | 44c | 199.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Tate | 55c | 199.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6f…0142backed Tate | 59c | 199.14$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.49 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Santos | 40c | 167.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Santos | 38c | 164.91$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.24 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e70…9047backed Tate | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df6…4462backed Santos | 40c | 112$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Santos | 49c | 110$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8d…c5c9backed Tate | 60c | 101.88$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.13 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Tate | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…6d3bbacked Tate | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Tate | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf8…7f09backed Tate | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Santos | 44c | 94.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.67 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…30b5backed Santos | 39c | 76.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 283 | 33.2%94 W · 189 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Tate | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Tate | 60c | 58.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Santos | 42c | 58.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Tate | 55c | 56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Tate | 58c | 52.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Santos | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Tate | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Tate | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Santos | 56c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…2a64backed Santos | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…ebd1backed Tate | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Santos | 38c | 35.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Tate | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Santos | 41c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2fdbbacked Tate | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Tate | 57c | 27.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…a4b2backed Santos | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8c…9101backed Tate | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Santos vs. Tatethis page
- Bolanos vs. LeLe won
- Jackson vs. MarcosJackson won
- Loder vs. BekoevBekoev won
- Miller vs. PetrovićMiller won
- Petersen vs. MayesPetersen won
- Ponzinibbio vs. RodriguezRodriguez won
- Rodriguez vs. RobertsonRobertson won
- Sandhagen vs. FigueiredoSandhagen won
- Smotherman vs. Sidey Sidey won
- Stephens vs. JonesJones won
- de Ridder vs. Nickalde Ridder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.