UFC · resolved market
Miller vs. Petrović
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bdebf2c9760d74d7b994155e9a69b731b5907f4fbec3a40d8133c59128b9bc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miller of Miller , Petrović
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Miller | 31c | 32,863$10,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,825.15 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Petrović | 69c | 28,975$20,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,081.51 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Petrović | 69c | 7,334$5,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,089.38 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2730…63eebacked Petrović | 71c | 2,134$1,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520.7 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf586…f614backed Miller | 32c | 1,700$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,158 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476a…76bdbacked Miller | 31c | 1,613$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.9 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Miller | 32c | 1,012$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.31 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Petrović | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Miller | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Miller | 31c | 967.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.74 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed Petrović | 72c | 835.62$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Miller | 30c | 749.94$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.46 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Miller | 28c | 672.6$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.27 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Petrović | 70c | 500$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Miller | 28c | 484.57$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.89 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Petrović | 69c | 291$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Miller | 30c | 284$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.8 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Petrović | 70c | 284$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.8 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Miller | 31c | 280$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Miller | 46c | 275.2$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.6 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Miller | 29c | 213.17$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.14 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Miller | 28c | 174$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.28 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9c…900fbacked Petrović | 57c | 150$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Petrović | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e70…9047backed Petrović | 71c | 150$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.75 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…072bbacked Petrović | 69c | 145.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Petrović | 68c | 130$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae2d…8f7bbacked Miller | 32c | 125$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…6d3bbacked Petrović | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Petrović | 71c | 93.87$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.65 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Miller | 28c | 75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ced…b02bbacked Petrović | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 63cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8df6…4462backed Miller | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…ecbfbacked Miller | 30c | 48.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Miller | 28c | 37.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Petrović | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Petrović | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Petrović | 71c | 33.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Petrović | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…ebd1backed Petrović | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Petrović | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8d…c5c9backed Petrović | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Petrović | 71c | 28.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Petrović | 73c | 26.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafb7…75f4backed Petrović | 71c | 22.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77d6…4fd2backed Petrović | 70c | 21.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miller vs. Petrovićthis page
- Bolanos vs. LeLe won
- Jackson vs. MarcosJackson won
- Loder vs. BekoevBekoev won
- Petersen vs. MayesPetersen won
- Ponzinibbio vs. RodriguezRodriguez won
- Rodriguez vs. RobertsonRobertson won
- Sandhagen vs. FigueiredoSandhagen won
- Santos vs. TateSantos won
- Smotherman vs. Sidey Sidey won
- Stephens vs. JonesJones won
- de Ridder vs. Nickalde Ridder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.