UFC · resolved market
Bolanos vs. Le
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x644d1d8be6c04e91061f27280bc8160ff7d51bd8a5855b37a6e3a7c92eeb73b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Leof Bolanos, Le
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $182,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $193,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $182,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c6f…737fbacked Le | 37c | 34,006$12,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,423.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +146.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8869…6f1ebacked Bolanos | 63c | 34,006$21,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,423.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…b97abacked Le | 37c | 30,875$11,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,451.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8274…335bbacked Bolanos | 63c | 30,875$19,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,451.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Bolanos | 55c | 20,556$11,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,360.43 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Le | 45c | 17,511$7,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,631.05 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Bolanos | 55c | 10,061$5,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,508.15 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Le | 46c | 4,500$2,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,440 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…ba70backed Le | 45c | 4,438$1,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,446.72 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Le | 43c | 2,483$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,415.5 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Le | 48c | 2,131$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.3 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Bolanos | 55c | 1,183$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Le | 45c | 1,140$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Bolanos | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Bolanos | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Bolanos | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed Bolanos | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…bdf5backed Bolanos | 51c | 961.22$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.22 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Bolanos | 52c | 824.22$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.59 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Bolanos | 55c | 804.34$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.38 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Bolanos | 59c | 509.49$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…97d0backed Bolanos | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x240e…5606backed Le | 46c | 491.98$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.67 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Le | 41c | 454.71$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.56 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Le | 44c | 400$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bolanos | 54c | 371.52$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.32 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Le | 45c | 355.56$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.56 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf586…f614backed Le | 45c | 350$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…4ee4backed Bolanos | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Bolanos | 54c | 279.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.73 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Bolanos | 52c | 260$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.25 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9c…900fbacked Le | 47c | 220$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.6 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Le | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Le | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Bolanos | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Bolanos | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Bolanos | 37c | 195$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Le | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Le | 45c | 149.97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.63 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8df6…4462backed Le | 46c | 144.44$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.44 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Le | 54c | 139.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…c702backed Le | 42c | 106.35$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Le | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaade…64eabacked Bolanos | 57c | 93.15$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Bolanos | 55c | 76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Bolanos | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Bolanos | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Le | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Bolanos | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa812…9c13backed Bolanos | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…5295backed Le | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e70…9047backed Bolanos | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Bolanos | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…ebd1backed Le | 46c | 43.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafe1…7d0dbacked Bolanos | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.28per pick | 64cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Le | 42c | 34.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Bolanos | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…2a64backed Bolanos | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7f…cb21backed Bolanos | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bolanos vs. Lethis page
- Jackson vs. MarcosJackson won
- Loder vs. BekoevBekoev won
- Miller vs. PetrovićMiller won
- Petersen vs. MayesPetersen won
- Ponzinibbio vs. RodriguezRodriguez won
- Rodriguez vs. RobertsonRobertson won
- Sandhagen vs. FigueiredoSandhagen won
- Santos vs. TateSantos won
- Smotherman vs. Sidey Sidey won
- Stephens vs. JonesJones won
- de Ridder vs. Nickalde Ridder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.