UFC · resolved market
Petersen vs. Mayes
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6bb73de3f78f3404b467b6e53eaa8439643a367c7523e6dd0ae23c8397a3d6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Petersenof Petersen, Mayes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Petersen | 74c | 3,059$2,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Mayes | 27c | 2,503$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.86 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Mayes | 25c | 2,500$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Petersen | 72c | 1,389$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.5 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…c3d6backed Mayes | 28c | 1,352$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.68 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Mayes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Petersen | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Petersen | 72c | 868.86$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.46 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Mayes | 24c | 741.15$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.67 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Mayes | 27c | 736.51$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.86 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Mayes | 28c | 565.77$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.78 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Petersen | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae2d…8f7bbacked Mayes | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Mayes | 25c | 460$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2102…6bc6backed Mayes | 29c | 457.2$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Mayes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Mayes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Petersen | 75c | 360$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf586…f614backed Petersen | 75c | 301.66$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.41 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Petersen | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Petersen | 73c | 205$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.35 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x240e…5606backed Mayes | 26c | 191.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Petersen | 75c | 170$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Petersen | 77c | 167.28$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.11 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8df6…4462backed Mayes | 28c | 155.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Petersen | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Petersen | 70c | 143$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Petersen | 74c | 141.62$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Petersen | 71c | 126.76$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Mayes | 18c | 104.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Petersen | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Mayes | 33c | 99.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaade…64eabacked Mayes | 27c | 89.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Mayes | 21c | 63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Petersen | 70c | 48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Petersen | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…ecbfbacked Petersen | 73c | 31.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa812…9c13backed Petersen | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e49…3312backed Petersen | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Petersen | 69c | 28.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8d…c5c9backed Petersen | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…ebd1backed Petersen | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Petersen | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Petersen vs. Mayesthis page
- Bolanos vs. LeLe won
- Jackson vs. MarcosJackson won
- Loder vs. BekoevBekoev won
- Miller vs. PetrovićMiller won
- Ponzinibbio vs. RodriguezRodriguez won
- Rodriguez vs. RobertsonRobertson won
- Sandhagen vs. FigueiredoSandhagen won
- Santos vs. TateSantos won
- Smotherman vs. Sidey Sidey won
- Stephens vs. JonesJones won
- de Ridder vs. Nickalde Ridder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.