UFC · resolved market
Loder vs. Bekoev
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a8e786a6f80eaea6039b67ebf91a20774b77bf940dcbf29ee3e72aecee3075f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bekoevof Loder, Bekoev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $133,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $137,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a56…0a04backed Loder | 25c | 51,862$12,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,965.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x791b…a810backed Bekoev | 75c | 51,862$38,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,965.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa112…d215backed Bekoev | 77c | 6,998$5,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,609.54 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Loder | 23c | 4,400$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed Bekoev | 75c | 3,316$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.79 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Loder | 23c | 2,764$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.85 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Loder | 26c | 2,086$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.24 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31b6…2d92backed Loder | 24c | 2,055$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Loder | 23c | 2,049$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.27 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Loder | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Loder | 26c | 1,524$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.02 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Bekoev | 78c | 1,507$1,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.99 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Bekoev | 75c | 1,476$1,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.31 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Bekoev | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Bekoev | 75c | 944.12$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.26 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Bekoev | 74c | 770.27$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.27 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Loder | 25c | 700$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.67 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51a7…530ebacked Bekoev | 75c | 688.14$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.03 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Loder | 3c | 650$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x240e…5606backed Bekoev | 76c | 511.89$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Loder | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Bekoev | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf586…f614backed Loder | 25c | 499.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Bekoev | 75c | 497.04$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.6 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Loder | 27c | 369.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Bekoev | 78c | 256.31$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.31 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Loder | 25c | 231.66$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8d…c5c9backed Loder | 27c | 231.36$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.54 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Bekoev | 76c | 218.6$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.58 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Loder | 14c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Loder | 22c | 199.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2d…8f7bbacked Loder | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Bekoev | 75c | 180$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…c702backed Bekoev | 74c | 139.98$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8df6…4462backed Loder | 27c | 129.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9d…2461backed Bekoev | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…bdf5backed Bekoev | 72c | 117.29$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed Bekoev | 74c | 116.7$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 134 | 65.7%88 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Loder | 25c | 107.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Bekoev | 75c | 100.08$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Loder | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Loder | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Loder | 25c | 97.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Bekoev | 75c | 95.95$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bekoev | 73c | 71.7$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Bekoev | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Loder | 27c | 46.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Bekoev | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Bekoev | 77c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Bekoev | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78f0…c63cbacked Bekoev | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…41b7backed Bekoev | 77c | 33.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Bekoev | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Bekoev | 76c | 26.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b8…0646backed Bekoev | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…ebd1backed Bekoev | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…6988backed Bekoev | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Bekoev | 79c | 24.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Bekoev | 79c | 24.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 158 | 39.2%62 W · 96 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77d6…4fd2backed Bekoev | 76c | 19.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Loder vs. Bekoevthis page
- Bolanos vs. LeLe won
- Jackson vs. MarcosJackson won
- Miller vs. PetrovićMiller won
- Petersen vs. MayesPetersen won
- Ponzinibbio vs. RodriguezRodriguez won
- Rodriguez vs. RobertsonRobertson won
- Sandhagen vs. FigueiredoSandhagen won
- Santos vs. TateSantos won
- Smotherman vs. Sidey Sidey won
- Stephens vs. JonesJones won
- de Ridder vs. Nickalde Ridder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.