UFC · resolved market
Smotherman vs. Sidey
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c96c42385c5ac301af50f936e527b30073b58b1bc84eec974362eacdb18940b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sideyof Smotherman, Sidey
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $145,355
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $149,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,355 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Sidey | 56c | 40,712$22,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,813.26 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9017…b286backed Sidey | 63c | 34,676$21,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,830.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…f535backed Smotherman | 37c | 34,676$12,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,830.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Smotherman | 44c | 23,546$10,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,243.28 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe653…c4a7backed Smotherman | 44c | 15,351$6,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,754.27 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…ba70backed Sidey | 58c | 4,498$2,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,890.32 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Smotherman | 36c | 3,275$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,169.41 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Smotherman | 44c | 2,134$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938.96 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…bdf5backed Smotherman | 42c | 2,025$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.42 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Sidey | 56c | 2,000$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf586…f614backed Sidey | 57c | 2,000$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…d384backed Sidey | 56c | 1,774$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Sidey | 57c | 1,755$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.65 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Smotherman | 36c | 1,713$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.16 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Smotherman | 44c | 1,696$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.3 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Sidey | 57c | 1,200$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Sidey | 57c | 1,191$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.78 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Smotherman | 44c | 1,136$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Smotherman | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed Smotherman | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.04 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Smotherman | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Smotherman | 42c | 779.05$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.48 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Smotherman | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Smotherman | 43c | 638$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.34 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Smotherman | 42c | 530.05$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.62 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Smotherman | 43c | 510.38$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.46 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Smotherman | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…869bbacked Smotherman | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x240e…5606backed Sidey | 56c | 464.09$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Smotherman | 46c | 435$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.1 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Smotherman | 27c | 403.67$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Sidey | 58c | 350$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d7…7ad5backed Smotherman | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…decbbacked Smotherman | 44c | 215$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.3 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed Smotherman | 45c | 200$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Sidey | 56c | 200$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Sidey | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Sidey | 54c | 199.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df6…4462backed Smotherman | 45c | 190.36$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.35 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…6d3bbacked Smotherman | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Sidey | 54c | 136$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…f81ebacked Sidey | 58c | 115$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…6c96backed Smotherman | 43c | 112.62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8d…c5c9backed Smotherman | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Smotherman | 37c | 102.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Smotherman | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Smotherman | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed Sidey | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd16…0be8backed Sidey | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Smotherman | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Smotherman | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Smotherman | 44c | 90$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Smotherman | 42c | 72.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4000…621abacked Smotherman | 43c | 69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5e…3668backed Sidey | 58c | 56.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed Smotherman | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Smotherman | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d9…e479backed Smotherman | 43c | 49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172b…e2cdbacked Sidey | 75c | 46.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Smotherman | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Smotherman | 44c | 41.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dce…1316backed Sidey | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…ebd1backed Sidey | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Sidey | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e70…9047backed Sidey | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcde4…f179backed Smotherman | 47c | 27.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff4…161bbacked Sidey | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Sidey | 67c | 25.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Sidey | 57c | 22.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c45…47f1backed Sidey | 50c | 22.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 190 | 65.3%124 W · 66 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Sidey | 58c | 21.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Sidey | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Smotherman vs. Sideythis page
- Bolanos vs. LeLe won
- Jackson vs. MarcosJackson won
- Loder vs. BekoevBekoev won
- Miller vs. PetrovićMiller won
- Petersen vs. MayesPetersen won
- Ponzinibbio vs. RodriguezRodriguez won
- Rodriguez vs. RobertsonRobertson won
- Sandhagen vs. FigueiredoSandhagen won
- Santos vs. TateSantos won
- Stephens vs. JonesJones won
- de Ridder vs. Nickalde Ridder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.