UFC · resolved market
Stephens vs. Jones
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe291ff4cf45de6d82ca212c6caeb419f544a41b657f84e9c6a93e86fa613223b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jonesof Stephens, Jones
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Stephens | 14c | 4,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Stephens | 16c | 3,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.5 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Stephens | 16c | 2,091$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.61 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Stephens | 16c | 1,798$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.81 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Stephens | 13c | 1,551$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.61 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9c…900fbacked Stephens | 5c | 1,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Stephens | 3c | 1,110$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Stephens | 13c | 708.16$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.06 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Stephens | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Stephens | 14c | 661.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.68 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Stephens | 14c | 431.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x240e…5606backed Stephens | 13c | 348.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df6…4462backed Stephens | 16c | 296.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…6988backed Stephens | 17c | 246.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Stephens | 21c | 238.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Stephens | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 520 | 52.9%275 W · 245 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Stephens | 16c | 175$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Stephens | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Stephens | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Stephens | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 277 | 43%119 W · 158 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6d…f343backed Stephens | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Stephens | 17c | 99.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Stephens | 16c | 98.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Stephens | 12c | 85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Stephens | 12c | 85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…c702backed Jones | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stephens vs. Jonesthis page
- Bolanos vs. LeLe won
- Jackson vs. MarcosJackson won
- Loder vs. BekoevBekoev won
- Miller vs. PetrovićMiller won
- Petersen vs. MayesPetersen won
- Ponzinibbio vs. RodriguezRodriguez won
- Rodriguez vs. RobertsonRobertson won
- Sandhagen vs. FigueiredoSandhagen won
- Santos vs. TateSantos won
- Smotherman vs. Sidey Sidey won
- de Ridder vs. Nickalde Ridder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.