TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

UFC · resolved market

Ponzinibbio vs. Rodriguez

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Rodriguezof Ponzinibbio, Rodriguez
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$398,305
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$404,788

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $398,305 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x516c…7082backed Ponzinibbio53c40,218$21,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,315.54250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc61…805dbacked Rodriguez47c40,218$18,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,315.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbb4…7ec5backed Rodriguez47c33,239$15,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,616.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e45…8953backed Ponzinibbio53c33,239$17,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,616.6720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0132…dfdabacked Ponzinibbio55c31,744$17,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,459.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe91e…e3c1backed Rodriguez45c31,744$14,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,459.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4957…4cbcbacked Rodriguez55c31,276$17,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,074.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb2c…20c3backed Ponzinibbio45c31,276$14,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,074.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a56…0a04backed Ponzinibbio46c28,460$13,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,091.620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1d3…dd9cbacked Rodriguez54c28,460$15,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,091.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Ponzinibbio56c23,746$13,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,357.2435253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x12d6…dbbcbacked Rodriguez43c16,334$7,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,310.521070%7 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Rodriguez45c4,671$2,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,565.7614751%75 W · 72 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Ponzinibbio60c4,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40035539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Rodriguez40c2,968$1,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,780.5716247.5%77 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf586…f614backed Ponzinibbio57c2,266$1,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,293.281855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Rodriguez48c2,091$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,090.5516951.5%87 W · 82 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3cf…a5d4backed Rodriguez43c2,000$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.995870.7%41 W · 17 L+6.8wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+21.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Rodriguez42c1,900$798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1021250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3043…2cbbbacked Rodriguez42c1,872$786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,085.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x240e…5606backed Ponzinibbio59c1,612$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.83944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7eed…5a28backed Rodriguez41c1,551$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$915.116829.4%20 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Rodriguez40c1,497$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$893.4233253.3%177 W · 155 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b34…b5b5backed Ponzinibbio59c1,424$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8404560%27 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Rodriguez56c1,405$791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.5423537%87 W · 148 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdd8…2ee5backed Ponzinibbio55c1,388$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.4610447.1%49 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Ponzinibbio56c1,378$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.11650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Rodriguez43c1,273$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.0511540%46 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Ponzinibbio51c1,251$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.116451.6%33 W · 31 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Ponzinibbio58c1,153$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.2842042.6%179 W · 241 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Ponzinibbio58c1,144$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.391428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-44.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x476a…76bdbacked Ponzinibbio57c1,049$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6006262.9%39 W · 23 L+8.7wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+24.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Ponzinibbio57c1,027$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.563857.9%22 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Rodriguez44c1,027$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.133943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Ponzinibbio1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101012%2 W · 99 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2373…ddfabacked Ponzinibbio58c1,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5801330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.21per pick52cpaid-41.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Rodriguez42c982.03$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.083259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+23.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd55c…34febacked Ponzinibbio54c913.3$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.75858.6%34 W · 24 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Ponzinibbio60c836.73$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50035764.7%231 W · 126 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa221…77f5backed Rodriguez41c763.57$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Ponzinibbio53c757.76$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.6148749.1%239 W · 248 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3bb…6b62backed Ponzinibbio58c737.93$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4281457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x024a…decbbacked Rodriguez42c736.28$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.943050%15 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+28.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0ff9…6d29backed Ponzinibbio59c622.03$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3661250%6 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9de1…896abacked Rodriguez43c618.6$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.62166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+26.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Rodriguez45c590.65$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.8214355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Ponzinibbio52c577.31$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30029948.8%146 W · 153 L-9.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f16…5546backed Ponzinibbio59c517.56$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3032665.4%17 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1df1…e7a9backed Rodriguez43c511.63$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.631323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.27per pick50cpaid-46.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x396a…e1e4backed Rodriguez45c511.11$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.112846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-22%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad25…7678backed Ponzinibbio52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26011844.1%52 W · 66 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a37…869bbacked Rodriguez43c464.82$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.821947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2771…05debacked Rodriguez45c444.44$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.443050%15 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Rodriguez42c433.33$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.3321044.8%94 W · 116 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x412a…802cbacked Rodriguez47c407.13$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.9416851.8%87 W · 81 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b29…8373backed Rodriguez41c400$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23620933.5%70 W · 139 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed Ponzinibbio59c400$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2368348.2%40 W · 43 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8d7…7ad5backed Ponzinibbio59c376$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.841560%9 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+31.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Ponzinibbio56c363.55$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.592147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Ponzinibbio59c350$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.524356.8%138 W · 105 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ea…810abacked Rodriguez46c349$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.726245.2%28 W · 34 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8df6…4462backed Ponzinibbio59c337.29$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1981233.3%4 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71e1…c440backed Rodriguez45c333.33$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.333237.5%12 W · 20 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-23.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked Ponzinibbio57c330$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.14953.1%26 W · 23 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+28.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd94…0b01backed Rodriguez41c296$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.646946.4%32 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Rodriguez46c282.61$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.6118644.1%82 W · 104 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd656…d127backed Rodriguez42c277$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+140.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x239a…a0c6backed Rodriguez58c270$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.34540%18 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf96c…40e1backed Rodriguez43c258.14$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.141747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccac…9940backed Rodriguez43c255.81$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.811747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Rodriguez45c250$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.528060%48 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Rodriguez45c248.22$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.6110439.4%41 W · 63 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe658…072bbacked Ponzinibbio60c233.82$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.291346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7565…da11backed Rodriguez43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.561656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+50.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Ponzinibbio58c226.61$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.3937854.8%207 W · 171 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfdbe…d11cbacked Rodriguez45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.223262.5%20 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+27.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd7cb…b857backed Rodriguez43c208$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.561553.3%8 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe742…7559backed Ponzinibbio58c207$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Rodriguez41c204$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.3620249%99 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Ponzinibbio53c200.96$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.5728743.9%126 W · 161 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Rodriguez43c200$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11439959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b0b…f9d6backed Ponzinibbio59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1183240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b9b…a65ebacked Rodriguez80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Ponzinibbio50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed Rodriguez41c200$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1187451.4%38 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae7c…6d3bbacked Ponzinibbio59c199.99$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.999744.3%43 W · 54 L-0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Ponzinibbio57c186.41$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.2524862.5%155 W · 93 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Ponzinibbio52c175$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9136745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7484…a41bbacked Ponzinibbio58c168$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x664b…8509backed Rodriguez43c157$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.491050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc376…a8e7backed Rodriguez41c156.1$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.110956%61 W · 48 L+8.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3330…1573backed Ponzinibbio58c155$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Ponzinibbio58c150$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8732545.2%147 W · 178 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7b4…2c06backed Rodriguez44c150$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24d2…92c5backed Ponzinibbio57c150$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.53852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5d2…317bbacked Rodriguez48c137$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.625642.9%24 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x975b…2d5fbacked Rodriguez59c126.1$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.714129.8%42 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Ponzinibbio21c123.81$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269124.2%22 W · 69 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-32.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xed27…14cbbacked Rodriguez44c105$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe06…d5d5backed Rodriguez42c103.81$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.211478.6%11 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.23per pick55cpaid+36.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.