TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xcc80…2fdb

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
230
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: MLB, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category MLB at 55 out of 100; worst NBA at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT6634.8%23 W · 43 L-5.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
NBA — the 66 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$359Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$359.06
76ers vs. Knicksbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$400.39
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the 2025 NBA Playoffs in scoring?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+84.9%+$46.92
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+270.4%+$73
Will Chet Holmgren record the most total rebounds in the NBA Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.15
Thunder vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$20.82
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+218.6%+$71.59
Pacers vs. Knicksbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.25
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT+82.7%+$104.09
Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.93
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
NBA Playoffs: Timberwolves vs. Warriors (To Advance)backed Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.39
Knicks vs. Celticsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT+29.6%+$23.65
Cavaliers vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$33
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$57.71
Will the Celtics beat the Knicks 4-0backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
Knicks vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$78.35
Warriors vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$106.88
Pacers vs. Cavaliersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT+85.1%+$47.76
Will Jaylen Wells win NBA Rookie of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.86
Will Dalton Knecht win NBA Rookie of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.34
Will Victor Wembanyama win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.72
Showing 25 of 66 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 12, 2026, EST6058.3%35 W · 25 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 60 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$121.07
Jets vs. Dolphinsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$190
Ravens vs. Chiefsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+127.3%+$127.27
Panthers vs. Patriotsbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Seahawks vs. Cardinalsbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$48.04
Lions vs. Ravensbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$304Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT+204.7%+$622.44
Chiefs vs. Giantsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Cardinals vs. 49ersbacked Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$82.86
Cowboys vs. Bearsbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Broncos vs. Chargersbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$410Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+63.6%+$260.73
Spread: BUF (-13.5)backed BUF · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$44
Chargers vs. Raidersbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT+48.6%+$21.86
Spread: Chargers (-3.5)backed Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$35.47
Chargers vs. Raiders: O/U 44.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT+103.7%+$67.39
Chargers vs. Raiders: O/U 45.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$46.31
Buccaneers vs. Texansbacked Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT+124.1%+$105.49
Buccaneers vs. Texans: O/U 43.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$19.64
Falcons vs. Vikingsbacked Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT+86.7%+$129.98
Broncos vs. Coltsbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Spread: Cowboys (-5.5)backed Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Spread: Steelers (-3.5)backed Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Seahawks vs. Steelersbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$217.31
Patriots vs. Dolphinsbacked Dolphins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Spread: Ravens (-11.5)backed Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT+92.9%+$46.44
Patriots vs. Dolphins: O/U 43.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$48.04
Showing 25 of 60 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Oct 5, 2025, EDT4047.5%19 W · 21 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 40 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dvalishvili vs. Sandhagenbacked Sandhagen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Santos vs. Yoobacked Yoo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralhobacked Imavov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT+117.4%+$35.22
UFC Fight Night: Saint Denis vs. Ruffy backed Ruffy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$35.58
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckleybacked Buckley · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$107.11
UFC Fight Night: Shahbazyan vs. Petroskibacked Petroski · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
UFC Fight Night: Garbrandt vs. Barcelosbacked Garbrandt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.48
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. McGeebacked Chiesa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$4.74
UFC Fight Night: Durden vs. Ochoabacked Ochoa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT+50.8%+$7.21
Dvalishvili vs. O'Malleybacked O'Malley · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Gastelum vs. Pyferbacked Pyfer · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT+30.9%+$19.16
Bautista vs. Mixbacked Bautista · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT+150%+$15
Spivac vs. Cortes-Acostabacked Spivac · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.2
Williams vs. Gustafssonbacked Williams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Mederos vs. Choinskibacked Mederos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$10.15
Stoltzfus vs. Ruziboevbacked Ruziboev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+39.7%+$10.73
Erosa vs. Costabacked Costa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+65.1%+$7.51
de Ridder vs. Nickalbacked de Ridder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT+284.6%+$29.6
Ponzinibbio vs. Rodriguezbacked Ponzinibbio · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.6
Santos vs. Tatebacked Tate · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.9
Leon Edwards vs. Sean Bradybacked Edwards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$42
Molly McCann vs. Alexia Thainarabacked Thainara · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$16.5
Marcin Tybura vs. Mick Parkinbacked Parkin · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$65.56
Nathan Fletcher vs. Caolán Loughranbacked Fletcher · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.7
Guram Kutateladze vs Kauê Fernandesbacked Kutateladze · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$19
Showing 25 of 40 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Oct 5, 2025, EDT3839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Miami vs. Florida Statebacked Florida State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$146.15
Vanderbilt vs. Alabamabacked Vanderbilt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Iowa State vs. Cincinnatibacked Iowa State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Kansas State vs. Baylorbacked Kansas State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.56
Spread: Clemson (-14.5)backed Clemson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT+96.2%+$48.09
New Mexico vs. San Jose Statebacked New Mexico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$75
BYU vs. Coloradobacked Colorado · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$185
Oregon vs. Penn Statebacked Penn State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Alabama vs. Georgiabacked Georgia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$140
Duke vs. Syracusebacked Syracuse · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
UCF vs. Kansas Statebacked UCF · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Fresno State vs. Hawai'ibacked Fresno State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+91.9%+$98.32
Michigan State vs. USCbacked Michigan State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Wyoming vs. Coloradobacked Wyoming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
California vs. San Diego Statebacked San Diego State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+151.7%+$98.57
South Carolina vs. Missouribacked South Carolina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
West Virginia vs. Kansasbacked West Virginia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Auburn vs. Oklahomabacked Auburn · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$35.76
Michigan vs. Nebraskabacked Michigan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT+82.2%+$64.93
Syracuse vs. Clemsonbacked Syracuse · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT+410.5%+$228
Texas Tech vs. Utahbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$96.88
Iowa vs. Rutgersbacked Rutgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$65.98
USC vs. Purduebacked Purdue · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Spread: USC (-20.5)backed Purdue · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT+91.7%+$27.51
Georgia vs. Tennesseebacked Georgia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT+91.8%+$32.12
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$142.43
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+132%+$92.39
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$87.76
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$149.4
Will Google have the top AI model on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+144.3%+$83.06
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Google have the top AI model on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$25.5
Will Gemini have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST+32%+$32.5
All 9 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2025, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-55.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 12, 2025, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick65cpaid-44.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2025, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
MLB — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Giants vs. Rockiesbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT+88.1%+$22.87
Braves vs. Giantsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2025, EDT+83.8%+$14.67
Braves vs. Giantsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2025, EDT+80%+$36.79
All 3 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Palisades wildfire spread to Malibu by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2025, EST-100%-$27.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST-100%-$36.71
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.