TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Knicks vs. Celtics

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Celticsof Knicks, Celtics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,228,122
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,085,390

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,228,122 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 911 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb42d…3d11backed Knicks0c526,081$2,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4603636.1%13 W · 23 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+32.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x18d2…81e0backed Celtics63c315,609$199,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115,625.392369.6%16 W · 7 L+3.4wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+25.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Knicks35c213,002$74,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74,664.5128341.7%118 W · 165 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d23…aa99backed Celtics62c203,563$126,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76,992.472147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5fb…84b5backed Celtics66c168,905$111,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,683.911782.4%14 W · 3 L+4.3wins+0.25per pick57cpaid+74.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa8e0…1dd2backed Celtics63c167,093$106,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,012.666344.4%28 W · 35 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Celtics52c158,143$82,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75,365.78333.7%28 W · 55 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3196…146fbacked Knicks36c136,889$49,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,2801936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Knicks24c86,532$21,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,120.977929.1%23 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e11…9bacbacked Knicks36c85,000$30,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,6002138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Knicks36c66,500$24,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,257.3414434%49 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xca21…b07cbacked Knicks38c65,431$24,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,908.1622458.9%132 W · 92 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Celtics71c58,365$41,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,086.3722457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Knicks32c55,958$18,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,122.9416537%61 W · 104 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96e8…d139backed Celtics64c54,695$35,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,690.26425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-60.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0785…8240backed Knicks36c53,828$19,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,378.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Celtics62c48,444$30,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,408.5828241.1%116 W · 166 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked Knicks13c43,718$5,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,886.733935.9%14 W · 25 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+62.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa61d…22f6backed Knicks37c40,000$14,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,800742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1569…4e0cbacked Knicks38c39,742$14,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,953.331457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-16.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5303…d66ebacked Knicks8c37,081$2,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,928.248921.3%19 W · 70 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x49d5…f347backed Knicks40c30,000$12,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,0001618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-51.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Celtics62c27,582$17,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,492.7366853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Knicks34c26,500$9,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,06066732.4%216 W · 451 L+41.8wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-3.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Celtics62c24,622$15,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,356.3547751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Knicks0c24,527$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.918783%26 W · 852 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8a2…3b96backed Knicks46c23,243$10,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,803.762040%8 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b42…ae6ebacked Knicks18c22,916$4,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,147.3713636.8%50 W · 86 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bd3…2a3cbacked Knicks1c22,715$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1258714.9%13 W · 74 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x617a…07b4backed Knicks7c20,123$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4001631.3%5 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick17cpaid+78.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Knicks42c19,846$8,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,340.391,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Knicks37c18,656$6,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,863.477445.9%34 W · 40 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b7e…ce6dbacked Knicks38c18,000$6,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,839.913644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x363a…df44backed Knicks37c17,568$6,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,5004841.7%20 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid+16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Celtics61c17,452$10,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,788.1629957.2%171 W · 128 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Knicks37c17,281$6,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,371.4280146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0deb…12c9backed Knicks39c17,222$6,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,716.6830%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Knicks35c17,000$6,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,009.9913133.6%44 W · 87 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Celtics65c15,928$10,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,639.871,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f86…0fa0backed Knicks24c15,327$3,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,750425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed Knicks1c15,006$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.572714.8%4 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-70.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f2…5495backed Knicks37c14,865$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,5005536.4%20 W · 35 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ef0…20cbbacked Knicks16c13,716$2,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,138.242722.2%6 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-61.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Celtics47c13,089$6,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,937.210926.6%29 W · 80 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-26.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Celtics64c13,077$8,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,757.951,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb130…6ee2backed Knicks2c12,877$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.961225%3 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3b9…14a1backed Knicks35c12,670$4,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,439.110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Knicks1c12,500$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1281,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Knicks37c12,224$4,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,534.1896447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Knicks36c12,000$4,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,28036843.8%161 W · 207 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcbbc…ea5abacked Knicks38c11,086$4,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,204.471838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Knicks38c10,395$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00031453.5%168 W · 146 L+0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed Knicks31c10,180$3,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,18836057.5%207 W · 153 L-14.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Knicks37c10,000$3,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,659.991,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dee…2ab7backed Knicks1c9,949$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.181811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-48.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabe9…8826backed Knicks32c9,255$2,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,995.764143.9%18 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x762e…4bf0backed Celtics67c9,109$6,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,965.145050%25 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x07cb…743cbacked Knicks35c8,657$3,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0305230.8%16 W · 36 L-6.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed Celtics57c8,571$4,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,679.6912040.8%49 W · 71 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Knicks9c8,491$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.6193041.9%390 W · 540 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Celtics63c8,000$5,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,979.9716641%68 W · 98 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e44…e83fbacked Knicks37c7,920$2,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,930.421136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee03…3eeabacked Celtics62c7,801$4,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,964.344854.2%26 W · 22 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+6.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Knicks32c7,000$2,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2425425.9%14 W · 40 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99cf…a86abacked Celtics65c6,972$4,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,420.1614034.3%48 W · 92 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6f6…e0a1backed Knicks46c6,864$3,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,157.391136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-46.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf35…b5eabacked Knicks37c6,822$2,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,526.1113239.4%52 W · 80 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa320…8232backed Knicks46c6,778$3,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,096.677261.1%44 W · 28 L+8.3wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+30.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x2942…59abbacked Knicks26c6,500$1,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,694.9318044.4%80 W · 100 L+15.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+36.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfc36…1fa0backed Knicks37c6,294$2,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,328.845950.8%30 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20e2…667fbacked Celtics63c6,190$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,290.484032.5%13 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bb4…acb6backed Celtics63c6,000$3,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,219.971844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-34.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Knicks31c5,962$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,840.022,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07dd…ed9dbacked Knicks37c5,868$2,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,17114040%56 W · 84 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x188d…6583backed Knicks37c5,792$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,160.255038%19 W · 31 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xecf7…ee71backed Knicks39c5,733$2,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,236742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+32.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea27…8a0bbacked Knicks14c5,655$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.7810656.6%60 W · 46 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Celtics62c5,602$3,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,111.92,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x12d6…dbbcbacked Celtics63c5,578$3,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,063.8920047%94 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6094…3bd9backed Celtics53c5,558$2,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,612.098536.5%31 W · 54 L+8.8wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+61.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Celtics62c5,555$3,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,110.98053.8%43 W · 37 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-10.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed Knicks4c5,473$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20156154.5%306 W · 255 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed Knicks37c5,432$1,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,990.1516436.6%60 W · 104 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19b8…9c8ebacked Knicks18c5,333$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98038027.1%103 W · 277 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Celtics63c5,309$3,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,967.4259653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc84…3e67backed Knicks38c5,291$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0002842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x94a1…ec2fbacked Celtics62c5,200$3,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,976560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4447…a0e7backed Knicks39c5,130$2,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.589450%47 W · 47 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Knicks9c5,100$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44841227.4%113 W · 299 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+94.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc3b…f625backed Knicks17c5,063$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.71926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-21.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Knicks39c5,050$1,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,969.51,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Celtics62c5,000$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,90046426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Knicks34c5,000$1,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,716.6676850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked Knicks36c5,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799.999747.4%46 W · 51 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Celtics65c4,923$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,722.9747542.3%201 W · 274 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Knicks45c4,896$2,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,220.551,19846.8%561 W · 637 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x069c…96e4backed Knicks9c4,891$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4205332.1%17 W · 36 L+7.8wins+0.15per pick17cpaid+39.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9997…af3bbacked Celtics64c4,574$2,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,640.118259.8%49 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03cb…4bf9backed Knicks25c4,555$1,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,138.0426640.2%107 W · 159 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ba8…61b7backed Knicks2c4,485$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.823925.6%10 W · 29 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick17cpaid-9.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.