NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x936e30830a36c661dbb58f71164a71dda032ed258b97bd988aa822a09a2b8abb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Celtics, Knicks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe9c2…2b38backed Knicks | 66c | 32,837$21,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,655.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…f081backed Celtics | 34c | 32,507$11,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,454.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Knicks | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 207 | 56%116 W · 91 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Celtics | 31c | 700$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Celtics | 28c | 460$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.8 | 706 | 40.8%288 W · 418 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb3…17cdbacked Celtics | 39c | 330$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e84…4b92backed Knicks | 66c | 299.99$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Celtics | 35c | 296.17$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.47 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Celtics | 33c | 201.91$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.28 | 575 | 50.3%289 W · 286 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Knicks | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Celtics | 34c | 199.98$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.99 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea27…8a0bbacked Knicks | 71c | 160$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 106 | 56.6%60 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Knicks | 76c | 103.71$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.34 | 367 | 47.7%175 W · 192 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Knicks | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 514 | 51.9%267 W · 247 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1471…7926backed Knicks | 66c | 31.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…86bdbacked Knicks | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-8.5)this page
- Knicks vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Over 204.5Over won
- Over 205.5Over won
- Over 207.5Over won
- Over 208.5Over won
- Over 209.5Over won
- Spread: Celtics (-2.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-3.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-4.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-7.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-9.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.