UFC · resolved market
Nathan Fletcher vs. Caolán Loughran
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc00e387c15e56348fb0a3de17a212749a9226f678504ff455f2c4e413d99eb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Loughranof Fletcher, Loughran
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,870
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,870 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Loughran | 43c | 2,044$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,165.83 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…d18bbacked Fletcher | 59c | 1,940$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.77 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Loughran | 40c | 1,525$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.17 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc37b…76babacked Loughran | 48c | 1,097$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Fletcher | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf725…136abacked Fletcher | 60c | 711.88$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.13 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Fletcher | 59c | 667$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.53 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Loughran | 39c | 640$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.2 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Fletcher | 56c | 545.44$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.95 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Fletcher | 54c | 501.96$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.04 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Loughran | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…6fa4backed Loughran | 44c | 450$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa911…9f8abacked Loughran | 44c | 435$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Fletcher | 55c | 389.97$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.51 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Loughran | 43c | 345.61$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Fletcher | 59c | 340$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.6 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Fletcher | 51c | 333$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.83 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Fletcher | 59c | 302$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.6 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb134…3e8abacked Loughran | 44c | 290$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5f…9ce2backed Fletcher | 60c | 288.06$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbc…1054backed Fletcher | 56c | 285$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Loughran | 44c | 284.99$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.6 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec2c…959abacked Loughran | 44c | 255$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33cb…1709backed Loughran | 44c | 255$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Loughran | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabe8…d32dbacked Loughran | 44c | 205$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7db4…241cbacked Loughran | 44c | 205$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 44cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3804…9912backed Fletcher | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c5…866bbacked Loughran | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…92c5backed Fletcher | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc349…754fbacked Fletcher | 56c | 195$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…5c26backed Fletcher | 55c | 181.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc50…0734backed Fletcher | 56c | 180$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x233d…0ecebacked Fletcher | 56c | 175$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb050…07f9backed Loughran | 44c | 170$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…8235backed Fletcher | 56c | 170$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16e3…ba88backed Fletcher | 56c | 170$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Fletcher | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2669…f8eebacked Loughran | 44c | 165$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…f3eabacked Fletcher | 56c | 155$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5845…1c4ebacked Loughran | 44c | 155$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x561e…fbe9backed Loughran | 44c | 155$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0a…3645backed Loughran | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4540…d61abacked Loughran | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa434…d89ebacked Loughran | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb795…61ddbacked Loughran | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0831…0e86backed Fletcher | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3568…f3f7backed Loughran | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02c9…d654backed Loughran | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb638…2842backed Loughran | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cb…9474backed Loughran | 44c | 145$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…8af6backed Loughran | 41c | 140$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1022…e9c1backed Fletcher | 56c | 140$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Loughran | 41c | 136.58$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.58 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…235abacked Loughran | 44c | 135$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e83…15d3backed Fletcher | 56c | 135$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…3e37backed Loughran | 41c | 135$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +108.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c0…c408backed Loughran | 44c | 135$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…629cbacked Fletcher | 56c | 130$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf52b…ff3fbacked Loughran | 41c | 130$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0713…a21bbacked Fletcher | 56c | 130$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb078…788dbacked Fletcher | 56c | 130$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Fletcher | 59c | 128$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Fletcher | 54c | 127.32$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1b…70b2backed Fletcher | 56c | 125$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb876…c41dbacked Fletcher | 56c | 125$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28b1…6395backed Loughran | 44c | 125$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Loughran | 42c | 125$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.19 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8a…dbf8backed Fletcher | 56c | 125$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41d5…601fbacked Fletcher | 56c | 120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…417bbacked Fletcher | 56c | 120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x525f…623cbacked Fletcher | 56c | 120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91dd…e009backed Loughran | 44c | 120$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc22d…d9aebacked Fletcher | 56c | 120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c05…d72fbacked Fletcher | 56c | 120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5a…25f3backed Fletcher | 56c | 120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x372c…1aa6backed Fletcher | 56c | 120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1de…8946backed Fletcher | 56c | 120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecee…34e8backed Fletcher | 56c | 120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d3…ee39backed Fletcher | 56c | 120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3f…ccbebacked Fletcher | 56c | 120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff41…6699backed Fletcher | 56c | 115$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb251…03cebacked Loughran | 44c | 115$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…feb8backed Fletcher | 56c | 115$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabaf…1b57backed Fletcher | 56c | 115$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0c…e77dbacked Fletcher | 56c | 115$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbef…ca7ebacked Fletcher | 56c | 110$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde35…51b8backed Fletcher | 59c | 110$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7882…8553backed Fletcher | 56c | 110$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20a…d03ebacked Loughran | 44c | 105$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Loughran | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Loughran | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6301…b997backed Fletcher | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd259…9d3fbacked Fletcher | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…071ebacked Fletcher | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6858…9b50backed Loughran | 44c | 95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc57…b36dbacked Fletcher | 56c | 95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfda3…7b0cbacked Fletcher | 56c | 95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd471…174fbacked Fletcher | 59c | 95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…531cbacked Loughran | 44c | 90$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nathan Fletcher vs. Caolán Loughranthis page
- Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Andrey PulyaevDuncan won
- Gunnar Nelson vs. Kevin HollandHolland won
- Guram Kutateladze vs Kauê FernandesFernandes won
- Jai Herbert vs. Chris Padilla Padilla won
- Jan Blachowicz vs. Carlos UlbergUlberg won
- Jordan Vucenic vs. Chris DuncanDuncan won
- Leon Edwards vs. Sean BradyBrady won
- Lone'er Kavanagh vs. Felipe Dos StanosKavanagh won
- Marcin Tybura vs. Mick ParkinTybura won
- Molly McCann vs. Alexia ThainaraThainara won
- Nathaniel Wood vs. Morgan Charriere Wood won
- Shauna Bannon vs. Puja TomarBannon won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.