UFC · resolved market
Marcin Tybura vs. Mick Parkin
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x415b712c152684e269048ab124e0b42674e7ff578d51379c1610bbaf89603fcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tyburaof Tybura, Parkin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe639…082abacked Parkin | 76c | 60,000$45,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,667.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…5e12backed Tybura | 3c | 45,491$1,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,056.28 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +6.0wins | +0.40per pick | 47cpaid | +914%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc37b…76babacked Parkin | 56c | 8,981$5,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,035.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Tybura | 44c | 8,661$3,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,850 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…decbbacked Tybura | 41c | 2,660$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,571.4 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bf45backed Parkin | 58c | 2,587$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37d8…b6ddbacked Parkin | 62c | 2,419$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Tybura | 41c | 2,340$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380.6 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb925…0f4abacked Tybura | 41c | 1,450$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Parkin | 68c | 1,433$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.49 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed Tybura | 46c | 1,422$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.56 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95f6…d035backed Tybura | 50c | 1,242$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.02 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x863f…8775backed Tybura | 40c | 1,232$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.2 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Parkin | 56c | 1,020$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.4 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Tybura | 30c | 1,018$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.02 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Parkin | 80c | 839$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.46 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Tybura | 51c | 692$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.44 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Parkin | 58c | 685$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.7 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Tybura | 39c | 679.82$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.98 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Parkin | 62c | 666$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.92 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Parkin | 62c | 600$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Parkin | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf725…136abacked Parkin | 62c | 499.82$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.89 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…d18bbacked Parkin | 54c | 473.82$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.81 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Tybura | 40c | 424.82$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.96 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Tybura | 38c | 410.74$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.61 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f0…e173backed Tybura | 47c | 349.99$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.5 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…6fa4backed Parkin | 56c | 260$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Parkin | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e1…5363backed Parkin | 50c | 249.56$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Parkin | 61c | 241.81$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.48 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Tybura | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6037…1e45backed Tybura | 44c | 220$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Parkin | 50c | 215.85$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Tybura | 46c | 206.52$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.52 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Parkin | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Tybura | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Tybura | 49c | 200$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Parkin | 64c | 195$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.83 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x465e…bf90backed Parkin | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Tybura | 48c | 185.01$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.13 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a459backed Tybura | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Tybura | 42c | 137.76$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.45 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…5c26backed Parkin | 71c | 135.45$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.65 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3916…53c7backed Tybura | 40c | 126.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.34 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…b00cbacked Parkin | 56c | 120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb780…10b7backed Parkin | 56c | 120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2fdbbacked Parkin | 56c | 117.31$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.56 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…f087backed Parkin | 62c | 109$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.67 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Parkin | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…c9b3backed Tybura | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 97 | 37.1%36 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…41b7backed Tybura | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Tybura | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Parkin | 63c | 95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed0…92debacked Parkin | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 122 | 45.1%55 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a6…a888backed Tybura | 44c | 90$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Tybura | 43c | 74.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Tybura | 41c | 65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…e6cdbacked Parkin | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Tybura | 41c | 52.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ca…8617backed Tybura | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Parkin | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f01…f3fdbacked Parkin | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x171f…95fbbacked Parkin | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -7.4wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Tybura | 39c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad1…8c20backed Tybura | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd8…5ddcbacked Parkin | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb7…75f4backed Parkin | 62c | 25.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…a5b0backed Tybura | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 42cpaid | +141.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Parkin | 71c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Marcin Tybura vs. Mick Parkinthis page
- Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Andrey PulyaevDuncan won
- Gunnar Nelson vs. Kevin HollandHolland won
- Guram Kutateladze vs Kauê FernandesFernandes won
- Jai Herbert vs. Chris Padilla Padilla won
- Jan Blachowicz vs. Carlos UlbergUlberg won
- Jordan Vucenic vs. Chris DuncanDuncan won
- Leon Edwards vs. Sean BradyBrady won
- Lone'er Kavanagh vs. Felipe Dos StanosKavanagh won
- Molly McCann vs. Alexia ThainaraThainara won
- Nathan Fletcher vs. Caolán LoughranLoughran won
- Nathaniel Wood vs. Morgan Charriere Wood won
- Shauna Bannon vs. Puja TomarBannon won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.