UFC · resolved market
Gunnar Nelson vs. Kevin Holland
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc571364991373ee414daf0d97bd71d0f2c37a32210e747d863de98a3787db80f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hollandof Nelson, Holland
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 209 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…128ebacked Holland | 47c | 8,036$3,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,236.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Nelson | 12c | 6,094$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.47 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…ff78backed Nelson | 54c | 4,444$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,399.74 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Nelson | 52c | 3,165$1,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,653.16 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Nelson | 51c | 2,895$1,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,476.54 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bf45backed Nelson | 56c | 2,666$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37d8…b6ddbacked Nelson | 60c | 2,180$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed Holland | 45c | 1,720$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.19 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Holland | 40c | 1,710$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.61 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Nelson | 53c | 1,491$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.64 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Holland | 47c | 1,391$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.4 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x863f…8775backed Holland | 46c | 1,203$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.43 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Nelson | 20c | 1,157$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.4 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Nelson | 55c | 1,086$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.06 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064d…a0e4backed Holland | 48c | 1,050$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a56…a644backed Nelson | 57c | 1,023$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.88 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Holland | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Holland | 47c | 932.68$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.32 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Holland | 45c | 908.52$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.3 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Nelson | 51c | 849.19$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.33 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Nelson | 57c | 835.56$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Holland | 44c | 791.01$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.39 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa94e…c540backed Nelson | 52c | 780$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03cb…4bf9backed Holland | 48c | 750$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…1817backed Holland | 46c | 700$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa950…a40ebacked Nelson | 54c | 700$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Holland | 42c | 544.61$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.18 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Holland | 46c | 543.48$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Holland | 76c | 520$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca86…4002backed Holland | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…d18bbacked Nelson | 30c | 457.36$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.72 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed38…4f73backed Holland | 48c | 435$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Holland | 46c | 430$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.2 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fae…8e64backed Nelson | 58c | 425.09$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Nelson | 53c | 411.32$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Holland | 44c | 389.3$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.11 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Nelson | 50c | 361$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.7 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Nelson | 18c | 350.56$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.97 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Holland | 47c | 340.43$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.43 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Nelson | 55c | 302.55$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.69 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8718…f02cbacked Nelson | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…ae91backed Holland | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed Nelson | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b13…39d3backed Holland | 45c | 299.99$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Holland | 45c | 270$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.5 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…c2a7backed Nelson | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Holland | 62c | 265.02$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.79 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Holland | 46c | 250$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…1d70backed Nelson | 54c | 230$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fab…f785backed Holland | 46c | 230$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba1…1703backed Nelson | 57c | 228.07$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6924…1a66backed Holland | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Holland | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…af26backed Holland | 48c | 220$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Nelson | 55c | 218$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.79 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3585…1cd9backed Holland | 45c | 212.79$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.79 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Holland | 52c | 209.08$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.58 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Holland | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…cf8dbacked Nelson | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5267…1433backed Holland | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7524…2149backed Holland | 46c | 195.65$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.65 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd7…70bcbacked Nelson | 52c | 195$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb741…b462backed Holland | 48c | 195$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Holland | 44c | 191.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.36 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6801…8b48backed Holland | 48c | 190$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…b9c0backed Holland | 48c | 190$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec2c…959abacked Nelson | 52c | 185$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…5c26backed Nelson | 56c | 178$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.68 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36a3…9151backed Holland | 48c | 170$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Holland | 51c | 166.77$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.96 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…6097backed Nelson | 52c | 165$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8402…bb90backed Nelson | 52c | 165$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x328a…b4f5backed Holland | 44c | 156.93$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.74 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x239a…a0c6backed Nelson | 14c | 153.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…c9b3backed Holland | 46c | 152.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.17 | 97 | 37.1%36 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4351…645dbacked Holland | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2014…4a08backed Nelson | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…0e7abacked Holland | 48c | 145$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3359…c1debacked Holland | 48c | 145$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…c074backed Holland | 48c | 140$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3916…53c7backed Nelson | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5af…a2febacked Nelson | 38c | 135.68$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…44a9backed Holland | 48c | 135$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ff…c12ebacked Nelson | 52c | 135$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Nelson | 59c | 133$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.83 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…07f2backed Nelson | 52c | 130$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72e7…589ebacked Nelson | 52c | 130$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x447c…9f3ebacked Nelson | 52c | 130$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x553e…f77abacked Nelson | 52c | 130$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c1…e39cbacked Nelson | 52c | 130$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60a…0c6abacked Nelson | 52c | 130$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a31…1bebbacked Nelson | 10c | 120.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17c5…1587backed Nelson | 52c | 120$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Nelson | 57c | 120$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Holland | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c1…6a29backed Nelson | 52c | 110$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155e…ea44backed Holland | 48c | 105$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6333…e00bbacked Holland | 49c | 104.46$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.51 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Holland | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…9c6abacked Holland | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Gunnar Nelson vs. Kevin Hollandthis page
- Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Andrey PulyaevDuncan won
- Guram Kutateladze vs Kauê FernandesFernandes won
- Jai Herbert vs. Chris Padilla Padilla won
- Jan Blachowicz vs. Carlos UlbergUlberg won
- Jordan Vucenic vs. Chris DuncanDuncan won
- Leon Edwards vs. Sean BradyBrady won
- Lone'er Kavanagh vs. Felipe Dos StanosKavanagh won
- Marcin Tybura vs. Mick ParkinTybura won
- Molly McCann vs. Alexia ThainaraThainara won
- Nathan Fletcher vs. Caolán LoughranLoughran won
- Nathaniel Wood vs. Morgan Charriere Wood won
- Shauna Bannon vs. Puja TomarBannon won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.