TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Gunnar Nelson vs. Kevin Holland

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hollandof Nelson, Holland
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$60,366
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$70,567

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,366 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 209 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0269…128ebacked Holland47c8,036$3,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,236.09475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Nelson12c6,094$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.476050%30 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12af…ff78backed Nelson54c4,444$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.7410542.9%45 W · 60 L-8.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xad25…7678backed Nelson52c3,165$1,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,653.1611844.1%52 W · 66 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8996…fbcebacked Nelson51c2,895$1,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,476.542642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5f…bf45backed Nelson56c2,666$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37d8…b6ddbacked Nelson60c2,180$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick58cpaid-64.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed Holland45c1,720$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.1911761.5%72 W · 45 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7455…93adbacked Holland40c1,710$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.6119531.8%62 W · 133 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70f8…d0d5backed Nelson53c1,491$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.644151.2%21 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Holland47c1,391$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.423537%87 W · 148 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x863f…8775backed Holland46c1,203$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.432657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+23.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x975b…2d5fbacked Nelson20c1,157$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.414129.8%42 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Nelson55c1,086$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.0642042.6%179 W · 241 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x064d…a0e4backed Holland48c1,050$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a56…a644backed Nelson57c1,023$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.881952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Holland45c1,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55035539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Holland47c932.68$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.3225251.2%129 W · 123 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5d2…317bbacked Holland45c908.52$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.35642.9%24 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Nelson51c849.19$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.3311540%46 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Nelson57c835.56$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47535664.6%230 W · 126 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Holland44c791.01$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.397646.1%35 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa94e…c540backed Nelson52c780$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.6650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03cb…4bf9backed Holland48c750$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06f2…1817backed Holland46c700$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3782100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa950…a40ebacked Nelson54c700$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Holland42c544.61$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.1833253.3%177 W · 155 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Holland46c543.48$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.48650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed Holland76c520$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1268751.7%45 W · 42 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca86…4002backed Holland46c500$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2701464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe505…d18bbacked Nelson30c457.36$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.723441.2%14 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed38…4f73backed Holland48c435$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.2475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+24.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked Holland46c430$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.24953.1%26 W · 23 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+28.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fae…8e64backed Nelson58c425.09$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfaa2…93ccbacked Nelson53c411.32$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Holland44c389.3$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.1114751%75 W · 72 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Nelson50c361$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.724862.5%155 W · 93 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Nelson18c350.56$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.974040%16 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Holland47c340.43$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.4318644.1%82 W · 104 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Nelson55c302.55$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.6916049.4%79 W · 81 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8718…f02cbacked Nelson54c300$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16230%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ec6…ae91backed Holland46c300$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1622100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+82.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2889…fc69backed Nelson52c300$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1567541.3%31 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b13…39d3backed Holland45c299.99$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1653455.9%19 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+25.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Holland45c270$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.539959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x468f…c2a7backed Nelson56c267.86$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15014045.7%64 W · 76 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Holland62c265.02$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.7937754.6%206 W · 171 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c46…be29backed Holland46c250$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1358851.1%45 W · 43 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80c5…1d70backed Nelson54c230$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.230%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fab…f785backed Holland46c230$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ba1…1703backed Nelson57c228.07$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1305133.3%17 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6924…1a66backed Holland45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.22966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+64.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa7dd…1e23backed Holland45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.2210529.5%31 W · 74 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x13c7…af26backed Holland48c220$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa04d…1488backed Nelson55c218$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.792740.7%11 W · 16 L-4.2wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-32.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3585…1cd9backed Holland45c212.79$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.79666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Holland52c209.08$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.5821554.4%117 W · 98 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe545…a68cbacked Holland48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3314130.5%43 W · 98 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae91…cf8dbacked Nelson54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5267…1433backed Holland46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1083100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+100.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7524…2149backed Holland46c195.65$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.651457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+22.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbd7…70bcbacked Nelson52c195$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb741…b462backed Holland48c195$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.42100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Holland44c191.99$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.3614355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6801…8b48backed Holland48c190$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.83100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+72.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2de6…b9c0backed Holland48c190$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid+4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec2c…959abacked Nelson52c185$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c72…5c26backed Nelson56c178$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6810452.9%55 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36a3…9151backed Holland48c170$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Holland51c166.77$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.9633948.1%163 W · 176 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…6097backed Nelson52c165$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.820%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8402…bb90backed Nelson52c165$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x328a…b4f5backed Holland44c156.93$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.741145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x239a…a0c6backed Nelson14c153.33$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214540%18 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf41c…c9b3backed Holland46c152.17$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.179737.1%36 W · 61 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4351…645dbacked Holland46c150$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+82.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2014…4a08backed Nelson54c150$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67b5…0e7abacked Holland48c145$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick62cpaid+70.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3359…c1debacked Holland48c145$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb5…c074backed Holland48c140$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.82100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3916…53c7backed Nelson55c136.36$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755038%19 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5af…a2febacked Nelson38c135.68$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+65.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd81d…44a9backed Holland48c135$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75ff…c12ebacked Nelson52c135$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Nelson59c133$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.8326451.9%137 W · 127 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+13.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x186d…07f2backed Nelson52c130$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72e7…589ebacked Nelson52c130$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x447c…9f3ebacked Nelson52c130$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x553e…f77abacked Nelson52c130$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18c1…e39cbacked Nelson52c130$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc60a…0c6abacked Nelson52c130$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a31…1bebbacked Nelson10c120.75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-64.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17c5…1587backed Nelson52c120$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Nelson57c120$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.413041.5%54 W · 76 L-9.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed Holland50c110$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.54533.3%15 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick39cpaid+20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8c1…6a29backed Nelson52c110$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x155e…ea44backed Holland48c105$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6333…e00bbacked Holland49c104.46$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.512060%12 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+21.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Holland41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597343.8%32 W · 41 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f58…9c6abacked Holland70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.21060%6 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-11.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.