UFC · resolved market
Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Andrey Pulyaev
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8ecf4310bd4995a8667a85ac451c35c213e68dd27b4ed80ee68127f8f8bc1b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Duncanof Duncan, Pulyaev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc37b…76babacked Pulyaev | 19c | 3,668$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Duncan | 78c | 3,024$2,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.59 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Pulyaev | 20c | 2,096$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.16 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Pulyaev | 22c | 2,064$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.99 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Pulyaev | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Pulyaev | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b6…2d92backed Pulyaev | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…e97abacked Pulyaev | 18c | 880$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Pulyaev | 19c | 665.99$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.54 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Duncan | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Pulyaev | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b18…b440backed Pulyaev | 18c | 460$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Pulyaev | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf725…136abacked Pulyaev | 22c | 209.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Duncan | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…8b56backed Pulyaev | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Duncan | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 540 | 56.7%306 W · 234 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Duncan | 80c | 129$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Pulyaev | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Duncan | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…41b7backed Pulyaev | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Duncan | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3916…53c7backed Pulyaev | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…06acbacked Pulyaev | 20c | 80.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Duncan | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xafb7…75f4backed Pulyaev | 21c | 70.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Pulyaev | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Pulyaev | 20c | 67.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Pulyaev | 19c | 63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Pulyaev | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf54c…d733backed Pulyaev | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Duncan | 78c | 22.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 378 | 54.8%207 W · 171 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Andrey Pulyaevthis page
- Gunnar Nelson vs. Kevin HollandHolland won
- Guram Kutateladze vs Kauê FernandesFernandes won
- Jai Herbert vs. Chris Padilla Padilla won
- Jan Blachowicz vs. Carlos UlbergUlberg won
- Jordan Vucenic vs. Chris DuncanDuncan won
- Leon Edwards vs. Sean BradyBrady won
- Lone'er Kavanagh vs. Felipe Dos StanosKavanagh won
- Marcin Tybura vs. Mick ParkinTybura won
- Molly McCann vs. Alexia ThainaraThainara won
- Nathan Fletcher vs. Caolán LoughranLoughran won
- Nathaniel Wood vs. Morgan Charriere Wood won
- Shauna Bannon vs. Puja TomarBannon won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.