UFC · resolved market
Lone'er Kavanagh vs. Felipe Dos Stanos
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37ff03569c073b419b6f9ca97c06ebf93b2f59a69da8b9c97eb40d5fe9c9397f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kavanaghof Kavanagh, Santos
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x863f…8775backed Santos | 31c | 2,790$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.99 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Kavanagh | 68c | 2,251$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.39 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa112…d215backed Kavanagh | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Kavanagh | 70c | 1,588$1,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.4 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Kavanagh | 70c | 1,419$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.7 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x520a…ab8abacked Santos | 33c | 1,319$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Kavanagh | 65c | 1,033$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.02 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Santos | 29c | 1,027$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.92 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Santos | 30c | 1,007$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.75 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Santos | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Santos | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Kavanagh | 71c | 743.24$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.54 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…d18bbacked Santos | 27c | 686.3$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.3 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Kavanagh | 73c | 684.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.93 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Santos | 31c | 666$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.46 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe32e…890bbacked Santos | 31c | 530.89$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.58 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Santos | 15c | 402.7$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.7 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Santos | 29c | 376.05$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.05 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Santos | 35c | 330$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…6c47backed Kavanagh | 72c | 310$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…a3e9backed Santos | 28c | 310$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Santos | 32c | 308.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Kavanagh | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…92c5backed Santos | 32c | 300$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Kavanagh | 67c | 299$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.67 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Santos | 48c | 288.77$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Kavanagh | 71c | 288.49$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.66 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Kavanagh | 44c | 250$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Kavanagh | 75c | 250$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Santos | 29c | 233$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.27 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4437…503ebacked Kavanagh | 70c | 214$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 65cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3916…53c7backed Santos | 35c | 213.26$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Santos | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa94e…c540backed Kavanagh | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…75e2backed Santos | 31c | 190$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…5c26backed Kavanagh | 70c | 171$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Santos | 25c | 153.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Kavanagh | 69c | 104.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Santos | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Kavanagh | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Santos | 29c | 88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x239a…a0c6backed Kavanagh | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…f087backed Kavanagh | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…693dbacked Kavanagh | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e81…0dc3backed Santos | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…8695backed Santos | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb668…fb51backed Santos | 31c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafb7…75f4backed Kavanagh | 67c | 62.65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x653c…a02abacked Santos | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b2…aa53backed Kavanagh | 70c | 61.43$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…b4debacked Santos | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad1…8c20backed Kavanagh | 70c | 44.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…e6cdbacked Kavanagh | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabe8…d32dbacked Kavanagh | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Santos | 30c | 32.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…b4d1backed Kavanagh | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x087b…95fcbacked Kavanagh | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7220…878cbacked Kavanagh | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bac…9a39backed Kavanagh | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…1d90backed Kavanagh | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e1…c440backed Kavanagh | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x171f…95fbbacked Kavanagh | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -7.4wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x561e…fbe9backed Kavanagh | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68ef…fc12backed Kavanagh | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lone'er Kavanagh vs. Felipe Dos Stanosthis page
- Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Andrey PulyaevDuncan won
- Gunnar Nelson vs. Kevin HollandHolland won
- Guram Kutateladze vs Kauê FernandesFernandes won
- Jai Herbert vs. Chris Padilla Padilla won
- Jan Blachowicz vs. Carlos UlbergUlberg won
- Jordan Vucenic vs. Chris DuncanDuncan won
- Leon Edwards vs. Sean BradyBrady won
- Marcin Tybura vs. Mick ParkinTybura won
- Molly McCann vs. Alexia ThainaraThainara won
- Nathan Fletcher vs. Caolán LoughranLoughran won
- Nathaniel Wood vs. Morgan Charriere Wood won
- Shauna Bannon vs. Puja TomarBannon won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.