TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Nathaniel Wood vs. Morgan Charriere

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Woodof Wood, Charriere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,253
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,064

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,253 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x93bc…8ca3backed Wood52c4,250$2,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,06042042.6%179 W · 241 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x863f…8775backed Charriere43c3,851$1,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,646.612657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+23.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Charriere43c1,810$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.183831.6%12 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Charriere1c1,107$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.221012%2 W · 99 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Charriere56c1,000$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.335539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Wood69c759.18$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.0553956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Wood50c744$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36935664.6%230 W · 126 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x520a…ab8abacked Charriere55c723$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.083148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xace4…bd19backed Wood43c650.94$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.043959%23 W · 16 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xace9…3e37backed Wood46c610$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.43100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+108.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Wood50c608.31$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.767646.1%35 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Wood47c585.13$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.414751%75 W · 72 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca86…4002backed Wood50c515.82$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.911464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb5a…bf73backed Wood60c501.8$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.85100%5 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+104.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Charriere57c500$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28525251.2%129 W · 123 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad25…7678backed Wood43c499.98$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.9911844.1%52 W · 66 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9264…bca3backed Charriere52c480.77$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick42cpaid+80.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Wood50c439$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.234040%16 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5d2…317bbacked Charriere48c437.22$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.425642.9%24 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b13…39d3backed Charriere51c400$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2043455.9%19 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+25.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x48ae…2324backed Charriere43c349.18$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+42.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Wood48c343.44$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.933253.3%177 W · 155 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe209…536dbacked Wood46c315$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.1250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked Wood49c299.74$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.874953.1%26 W · 23 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+28.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ba1…1703backed Charriere51c294.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505133.3%17 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa20a…d03ebacked Charriere54c275$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Charriere52c250$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13013041.5%54 W · 76 L-9.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x994f…d982backed Charriere54c245$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35ce…6ce0backed Charriere54c245$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.330%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9040…9e22backed Charriere54c240$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa7dd…1e23backed Charriere47c220$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.410529.5%31 W · 74 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4024…35ccbacked Charriere54c215$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe545…a68cbacked Wood47c213.98$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.9814130.5%43 W · 98 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefe6…eb8abacked Wood45c211.49$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.322100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick52cpaid+97.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67d5…ccc7backed Wood46c210$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Wood65c205$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.439959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xab2b…2ff0backed Wood46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1082100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24d2…92c5backed Wood47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1063852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Charriere54c199.98$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.9928743.9%126 W · 161 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Wood49c196$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.9618560%111 W · 74 L+0.9wins0.00per pick60cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c72…5c26backed Charriere51c196$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9610452.9%55 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc3a…236cbacked Charriere54c195$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafb7…75f4backed Charriere52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007655.3%42 W · 34 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd55c…34febacked Charriere58c188.53$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.355858.6%34 W · 24 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c84…9296backed Wood46c185$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.9250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79d0…b9b0backed Wood46c185$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.9250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c2d…43f3backed Charriere54c170$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.8250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8332…7c18backed Wood46c170$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dc8…6d54backed Wood46c170$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.8250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe92c…47e9backed Charriere54c165$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.1250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a04…b2a6backed Charriere54c165$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.120%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x58dd…0ed1backed Wood46c160$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73f1…4491backed Charriere54c160$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Charriere21c160$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.75433.3%18 W · 36 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-21.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x050d…e9fabacked Wood46c155$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.7250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b58…fef7backed Charriere54c155$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.7250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cef…fcbcbacked Wood46c155$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.7250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7106…253bbacked Wood45c150$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5da0…da0ebacked Wood46c150$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbee7…f1e7backed Wood46c150$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedc0…a6c3backed Wood46c150$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick52cpaid+96.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b27…51f3backed Wood46c150$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f8…9139backed Wood46c150$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe151…d3c4backed Charriere54c150$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8ea…6575backed Wood46c150$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b36…9cbcbacked Wood46c145$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.32100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5e4…d007backed Wood46c145$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.3250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f77…fe7bbacked Wood46c145$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid+8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53a5…a537backed Wood46c145$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.3250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0433…5c68backed Charriere54c145$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.320%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x740d…ecb6backed Wood46c145$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid+8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2639…1994backed Wood46c145$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1379…2548backed Wood46c145$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb65…8accbacked Wood46c145$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55a2…28edbacked Wood46c145$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc14…e34cbacked Wood46c145$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49ef…4e15backed Wood46c145$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.32100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick56cpaid+85.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf835…f930backed Charriere54c145$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6508…9579backed Charriere54c140$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bac…1226backed Wood46c140$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d97…f7c2backed Charriere55c130$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdc0…c4cebacked Charriere54c130$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58cd…f1cdbacked Wood45c130$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b3a…dc63backed Charriere54c130$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d8…cf41backed Charriere54c130$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ac7…96f9backed Charriere54c130$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2fce…a6babacked Charriere54c125$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb01…ebedbacked Charriere54c125$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x324a…5c0ebacked Charriere54c125$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f2…2303backed Charriere54c125$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ba…84f7backed Charriere54c125$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Charriere12c123.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7321031.9%67 W · 143 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0535…fe8abacked Charriere54c120$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa515…309bbacked Charriere54c120$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4e2…dca6backed Charriere55c120$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb62…cd43backed Charriere55c120$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f35…81abbacked Charriere54c120$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeef9…c97bbacked Wood46c115$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.12100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick45cpaid+125%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7832…1d90backed Charriere54c115$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick62cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb251…03cebacked Charriere54c105$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.