UFC · resolved market

Jordan Vucenic vs. Chris Duncan

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe9c7ec0baed3dfc10c5f76f517ce7b60220928643f9bd25bc4175632feff0ed

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Duncanof Vucenic, Duncan
Resolved: Mar 22, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $43,675
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $52,646

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,675 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in UFC
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc37b…76babacked Duncan	43c	15,258$6,556 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,701.88	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc954…bdf5backed Vucenic	71c	12,647$8,963 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,962.77	42	59.5%25 W · 17 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a69…a466backed Vucenic	76c	3,500$2,661 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,660.93	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-3.1wins	-0.34per pick	57cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Vucenic	55c	3,125$1,725 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,724.69	76	46.1%35 W · 41 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Duncan	29c	2,361$681 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,679.76	358	26%93 W · 265 L	-7.5wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e5f…bf45backed Duncan	24c	2,113$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,613.48	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.17per pick	45cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5d2…317bbacked Duncan	24c	2,088$507 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,581.39	56	42.9%24 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Vucenic	71c	2,043$1,450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,450.33	420	42.6%179 W · 241 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Vucenic	1c	2,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	101	2%2 W · 99 L	-4.1wins	-0.04per pick	6cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa112…d215backed Vucenic	77c	2,000$1,540 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,539.99	12	75%9 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	75cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Duncan	30c	1,000$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$700	355	39.4%140 W · 215 L	-19.1wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x48ae…2324backed Vucenic	37c	818.02$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+2.4wins	+0.17per pick	40cpaid	+42.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x520a…ab8abacked Duncan	29c	770.99$224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$547.4	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	43cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Vucenic	74c	743.24$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550	356	64.6%230 W · 126 L	+9.3wins	+0.03per pick	62cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Duncan	24c	718$172 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$545.68	185	60%111 W · 74 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	60cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Duncan	24c	617.49$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$468.69	332	53.3%177 W · 155 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12af…ff78backed Duncan	28c	585.14$162 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$422.71	105	42.9%45 W · 60 L	-8.1wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Vucenic	34c	550$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.5	264	51.9%137 W · 127 L	+23.0wins	+0.09per pick	43cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5ba1…1703backed Duncan	29c	444.83$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$314.83	51	33.3%17 W · 34 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe545…a68cbacked Duncan	23c	434.78$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$334.78	141	30.5%43 W · 98 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Vucenic	78c	400$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312	248	62.5%155 W · 93 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	61cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6924…1a66backed Duncan	28c	352.48$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$252.48	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+2.3wins	+0.25per pick	41cpaid	+64.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa7dd…1e23backed Duncan	30c	333.33$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$233.33	105	29.5%31 W · 74 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9afc…58c9backed Duncan	22c	310$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$241.8	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.78per pick	22cpaid	+354.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7507…fd58backed Vucenic	78c	310$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.8	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.55per pick	55cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Vucenic	57c	300$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.41	539	56.6%305 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4437…503ebacked Vucenic	73c	292.99$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.88	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-2.7wins	-0.18per pick	65cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7f57…94f5backed Duncan	24c	270$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$205.2	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+108.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x095f…41b7backed Duncan	35c	250$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162.5	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0dc…84e0backed Vucenic	65c	250$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.5	65	47.7%31 W · 34 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca86…4002backed Duncan	28c	250$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$180	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+2.3wins	+0.17per pick	48cpaid	+25.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe311…f555backed Duncan	24c	220$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$167.2	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.4wins	+0.47per pick	53cpaid	+138%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Vucenic	72c	210$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.2	399	59.6%238 W · 161 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x080a…8b56backed Duncan	23c	200$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+1.8wins	+0.18per pick	32cpaid	+96.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Duncan	30c	200$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140	287	43.9%126 W · 161 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Vucenic	79c	200$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158	121	59.5%72 W · 49 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd55c…34febacked Duncan	24c	177.17$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$134.65	58	58.6%34 W · 24 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafb7…75f4backed Vucenic	74c	170.27$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126	76	55.3%42 W · 34 L	-4.2wins	-0.06per pick	61cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6b2…aa53backed Duncan	27c	159.26$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.26	20	60%12 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Vucenic	25c	150$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	377	54.6%206 W · 171 L	+19.6wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa04d…1488backed Vucenic	55c	134$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.27	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	-4.2wins	-0.16per pick	56cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1e0f…a355backed Vucenic	79c	126.58$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.79per pick	79cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa865…a2c3backed Vucenic	76c	110$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.6	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.21per pick	71cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Vucenic	77c	106.65$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	564	50.5%285 W · 279 L	+6.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8816…629cbacked Duncan	24c	100$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+108.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Duncan	29c	100$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71	54	33.3%18 W · 36 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3916…53c7backed Duncan	27c	92.59$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.59	50	38%19 W · 31 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Duncan	32c	91.41$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.35	339	48.1%163 W · 176 L	-16.2wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x239a…a0c6backed Duncan	64c	90$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.4	45	40%18 W · 27 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Vucenic	45c	80$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.8	88	26.1%23 W · 65 L	-4.5wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Vucenic	73c	74$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.94	143	55.9%80 W · 63 L	+7.8wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x87a3…dad3backed Duncan	24c	70$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.2	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefb4…9653backed Vucenic	76c	65.79$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	65	63.1%41 W · 24 L	-3.1wins	-0.05per pick	68cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x09ba…8581backed Duncan	24c	65$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.4	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.5wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+150.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x975b…2d5fbacked Vucenic	45c	61.97$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.89	141	29.8%42 W · 99 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-27%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95f6…d035backed Duncan	64c	59.89$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.77	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+2.0wins	+0.22per pick	33cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x72fe…e2cebacked Vucenic	74c	54$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.96	90	62.2%56 W · 34 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	66cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b13…39d3backed Duncan	27c	53.7$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.2	34	55.9%19 W · 15 L	+4.2wins	+0.12per pick	43cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe523…f087backed Duncan	29c	51.72$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.72	191	52.9%101 W · 90 L	+14.4wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x35ce…6ce0backed Vucenic	76c	50$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.9wins	-0.62per pick	62cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x740d…ecb6backed Vucenic	76c	50$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Vucenic	73c	50$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.5	522	52.9%276 W · 246 L	+15.0wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ad1…8c20backed Vucenic	73c	50$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.5	78	56.4%44 W · 34 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c87…70d5backed Duncan	29c	44.66$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.71	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbb5…510dbacked Vucenic	73c	40$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.2	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	62cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdba1…e6cdbacked Vucenic	78c	38.46$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	-3.3wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed Vucenic	72c	35.26$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.39	227	53.3%121 W · 106 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…6097backed Vucenic	76c	35$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.6	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.64per pick	64cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2de6…b9c0backed Vucenic	76c	35$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.6	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb20…5e3cbacked Vucenic	76c	30$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.8	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	57cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf960…fcbfbacked Vucenic	41c	30$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	24	66.7%16 W · 8 L	+2.9wins	+0.12per pick	55cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x33b4…d8b1backed Vucenic	76c	30$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.76per pick	76cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe13…c5ffbacked Vucenic	71c	28.17$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	71cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x171f…95fbbacked Vucenic	78c	25.64$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	-7.4wins	-0.23per pick	54cpaid	-48.8%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x7f77…fe7bbacked Vucenic	76c	25$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ce0…a2b0backed Vucenic	76c	25$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.76per pick	76cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb876…c41dbacked Vucenic	76c	25$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.66per pick	66cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x55a2…28edbacked Vucenic	76c	25$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	65cpaid	+18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6301…b997backed Vucenic	78c	25$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.26per pick	59cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0533…ce16backed Vucenic	76c	25$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.76per pick	76cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6b…db56backed Vucenic	76c	25$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.76per pick	76cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Vucenic	67c	20$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.4	487	49.1%239 W · 248 L	-8.3wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c0…c408backed Vucenic	76c	20$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.2	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ef6…dc43backed Vucenic	76c	20$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.76per pick	76cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd682…8ff1backed Vucenic	76c	15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Jordan Vucenic vs. Chris Duncanthis page
Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Andrey PulyaevDuncan won
Gunnar Nelson vs. Kevin HollandHolland won
Guram Kutateladze vs Kauê FernandesFernandes won
Jai Herbert vs. Chris Padilla Padilla won
Jan Blachowicz vs. Carlos UlbergUlberg won
Leon Edwards vs. Sean BradyBrady won
Lone'er Kavanagh vs. Felipe Dos StanosKavanagh won
Marcin Tybura vs. Mick ParkinTybura won
Molly McCann vs. Alexia ThainaraThainara won
Nathan Fletcher vs. Caolán LoughranLoughran won
Nathaniel Wood vs. Morgan Charriere Wood won
Shauna Bannon vs. Puja TomarBannon won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Jordan Vucenic vs. Chris Duncan

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event