UFC · resolved market
Jai Herbert vs. Chris Padilla
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1831606258368e338b4071943fe9899bab3cf0026b77b42228f45c6962332a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Padillaof Herbert, Padilla
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Padilla | 49c | 13,300$6,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,769.99 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Herbert | 51c | 6,000$3,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,060 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Herbert | 53c | 5,809$3,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,085.98 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…ff78backed Herbert | 56c | 5,481$3,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,047.47 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Herbert | 51c | 3,589$1,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,840.82 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x863f…8775backed Padilla | 45c | 3,120$1,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,724.98 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x476a…76bdbacked Padilla | 50c | 2,824$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,423.84 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x48ae…2324backed Padilla | 46c | 1,979$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068.39 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Herbert | 51c | 1,458$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.12 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Padilla | 48c | 1,332$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.3 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064d…a0e4backed Herbert | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…2257backed Padilla | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Herbert | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Padilla | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Herbert | 49c | 950.32$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.66 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Padilla | 49c | 949.99$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.5 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Herbert | 57c | 790.6$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 357 | 64.7%231 W · 126 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Herbert | 58c | 708.04$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.24 | 540 | 56.7%306 W · 234 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x520a…ab8abacked Padilla | 44c | 700$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Herbert | 53c | 627$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.31 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Padilla | 43c | 610.02$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.71 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Padilla | 46c | 587.16$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.2 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Herbert | 51c | 540$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Padilla | 42c | 474.99$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.49 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Herbert | 51c | 427$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.22 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Herbert | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Herbert | 57c | 375.41$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.98 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Padilla | 44c | 324$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.44 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…92c5backed Padilla | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabe3…8b39backed Herbert | 50c | 290$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68ef…fc12backed Herbert | 50c | 285$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7385…e780backed Padilla | 50c | 235$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 47cpaid | +116.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Padilla | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Herbert | 58c | 224.3$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.34 | 265 | 52.1%138 W · 127 L | +23.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…cd12backed Herbert | 58c | 224.3$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…965dbacked Herbert | 50c | 220$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…5c26backed Padilla | 46c | 217$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.18 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5e…45edbacked Herbert | 50c | 205$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Herbert | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe07…d839backed Herbert | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Herbert | 50c | 200$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Padilla | 48c | 185$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.05 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaecc…1f6ebacked Herbert | 50c | 185$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e5…7bd5backed Herbert | 50c | 185$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927a…cbacbacked Padilla | 50c | 185$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb22e…e35fbacked Padilla | 50c | 175$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30b…1adfbacked Padilla | 50c | 155$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…1a2dbacked Padilla | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1012…3a91backed Herbert | 50c | 145$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6173…7bdcbacked Herbert | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…6fb2backed Padilla | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x087b…95fcbacked Herbert | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6256…3c82backed Padilla | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7220…878cbacked Herbert | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Herbert | 51c | 139.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…edbcbacked Herbert | 50c | 135$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08fb…109bbacked Herbert | 50c | 135$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa0…8b14backed Padilla | 50c | 135$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e10…965fbacked Padilla | 50c | 135$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1764…f6ccbacked Herbert | 50c | 135$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2df…5174backed Herbert | 50c | 135$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9230…22a2backed Padilla | 50c | 130$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd72e…394ebacked Padilla | 50c | 130$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a91…9e12backed Padilla | 50c | 130$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…59a9backed Padilla | 50c | 130$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…f6d7backed Herbert | 50c | 130$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe953…a2efbacked Padilla | 50c | 130$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Herbert | 55c | 126.41$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.92 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a91…a66bbacked Herbert | 50c | 125$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…f46bbacked Padilla | 48c | 123.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.77 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 49cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19aa…02efbacked Herbert | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…6fa4backed Herbert | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafb7…75f4backed Padilla | 45c | 110.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.88 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda86…8796backed Herbert | 50c | 110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1d…dc5ebacked Padilla | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Herbert | 58c | 104$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Herbert | 51c | 103$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78f2…51a1backed Herbert | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…93fcbacked Herbert | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6301…b997backed Padilla | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Herbert | 51c | 96.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Padilla | 48c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 378 | 54.8%207 W · 171 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09ba…8581backed Padilla | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +150.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…e3f2backed Padilla | 50c | 85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a3…dad3backed Herbert | 50c | 85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83cb…93ddbacked Padilla | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f0…e173backed Herbert | 49c | 79.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x598d…3244backed Herbert | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7beb…7f6bbacked Padilla | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa223…e154backed Herbert | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…d203backed Padilla | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…db88backed Padilla | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b3…2059backed Padilla | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e98…0009backed Padilla | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Padilla | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +75%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Padilla | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a5…6d35backed Padilla | 50c | 65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x239a…a0c6backed Padilla | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x233d…0ecebacked Herbert | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…e6cdbacked Padilla | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jai Herbert vs. Chris Padilla this page
- Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Andrey PulyaevDuncan won
- Gunnar Nelson vs. Kevin HollandHolland won
- Guram Kutateladze vs Kauê FernandesFernandes won
- Jan Blachowicz vs. Carlos UlbergUlberg won
- Jordan Vucenic vs. Chris DuncanDuncan won
- Leon Edwards vs. Sean BradyBrady won
- Lone'er Kavanagh vs. Felipe Dos StanosKavanagh won
- Marcin Tybura vs. Mick ParkinTybura won
- Molly McCann vs. Alexia ThainaraThainara won
- Nathan Fletcher vs. Caolán LoughranLoughran won
- Nathaniel Wood vs. Morgan Charriere Wood won
- Shauna Bannon vs. Puja TomarBannon won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.