UFC · resolved market
Guram Kutateladze vs Kauê Fernandes
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e0d3b2d7e8eb380102f3e54c2553027ab530bc8659a58ee51e763a1f0c04447
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fernandesof Kutateladze, Fernandes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Fernandes | 23c | 11,135$2,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,574.29 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Kutateladze | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Kutateladze | 77c | 9,513$7,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,325.29 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa112…d215backed Kutateladze | 77c | 3,000$2,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,309.98 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Fernandes | 23c | 1,701$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,312 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a69…a466backed Kutateladze | 77c | 1,309$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.34per pick | 57cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Kutateladze | 77c | 1,205$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.85 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…41b7backed Fernandes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5f…9ce2backed Fernandes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Fernandes | 23c | 842.88$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.02 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Fernandes | 22c | 792$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.44 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf725…136abacked Kutateladze | 75c | 670.27$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.71 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Kutateladze | 77c | 649.35$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Kutateladze | 77c | 500$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd8…5ddcbacked Fernandes | 23c | 439.13$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.13 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Fernandes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.78 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…5c26backed Fernandes | 23c | 434$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.18 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Kutateladze | 78c | 332.23$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.31 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Kutateladze | 76c | 250$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…d18bbacked Fernandes | 22c | 148.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.8 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…f46bbacked Fernandes | 24c | 125$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 49cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Fernandes | 23c | 119$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.63 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Kutateladze | 76c | 105$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Fernandes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf7d…e081backed Kutateladze | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Fernandes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc08d…c5ebbacked Fernandes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6301…b997backed Kutateladze | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Kutateladze | 76c | 93$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.68 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Fernandes | 20c | 85.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Fernandes | 24c | 84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…6988backed Kutateladze | 76c | 84$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Kutateladze | 80c | 75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb68d…f913backed Kutateladze | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Fernandes | 23c | 46.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…e6cdbacked Kutateladze | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2fdbbacked Kutateladze | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x171f…95fbbacked Kutateladze | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -7.4wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcb16…3057backed Kutateladze | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Kutateladze | 72c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Kutateladze | 73c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Guram Kutateladze vs Kauê Fernandesthis page
- Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Andrey PulyaevDuncan won
- Gunnar Nelson vs. Kevin HollandHolland won
- Jai Herbert vs. Chris Padilla Padilla won
- Jan Blachowicz vs. Carlos UlbergUlberg won
- Jordan Vucenic vs. Chris DuncanDuncan won
- Leon Edwards vs. Sean BradyBrady won
- Lone'er Kavanagh vs. Felipe Dos StanosKavanagh won
- Marcin Tybura vs. Mick ParkinTybura won
- Molly McCann vs. Alexia ThainaraThainara won
- Nathan Fletcher vs. Caolán LoughranLoughran won
- Nathaniel Wood vs. Morgan Charriere Wood won
- Shauna Bannon vs. Puja TomarBannon won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.