NFL · resolved market
Spread: Cowboys (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c953b5506e7436aa5b76348f704af6efcf01636f69117898f993629da2f7bd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Giantsof Cowboys, Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Giants | 51c | 35,676$18,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,339.47 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Cowboys | 50c | 16,822$8,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,411.02 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Cowboys | 47c | 12,600$5,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,922 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Cowboys | 48c | 9,080$4,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,399.2 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Cowboys | 47c | 7,000$3,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,290 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Giants | 52c | 6,234$3,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,992.33 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Giants | 51c | 6,060$3,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,969.52 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Giants | 52c | 5,003$2,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,401.44 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Cowboys | 49c | 2,032$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.46 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Giants | 51c | 2,028$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.53 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f2…5495backed Cowboys | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac1…45dbbacked Cowboys | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Cowboys | 48c | 833.33$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Cowboys | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Cowboys | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Cowboys | 49c | 470.05$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.32 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…2a91backed Cowboys | 48c | 420$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Giants | 56c | 350$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Cowboys | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…6c83backed Cowboys | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 93 | 58.1%54 W · 39 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe8…0176backed Cowboys | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Cowboys | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 40.2%47 W · 70 L | -10.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Giants | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -12.6wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Cowboys | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…18cebacked Cowboys | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Cowboys | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…e6fdbacked Cowboys | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9a…e376backed Cowboys | 51c | 163.41$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked Cowboys | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…3b9abacked Cowboys | 47c | 107$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Cowboys | 51c | 102.55$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 208 | 51%106 W · 102 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Giants | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a74…d69ebacked Cowboys | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2fdbbacked Cowboys | 50c | 99.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f78…31a4backed Cowboys | 51c | 97.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Giants | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Cowboys | 51c | 60.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Cowboys | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 310 | 32.6%101 W · 209 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Cowboys | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f5…6905backed Cowboys | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cowboys (-5.5)this page
- Giants vs. CowboysCowboys won
- Giants vs. Cowboys: O/U 44.5Over won
- Giants vs. Cowboys: O/U 45.5Over won
- Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)Giants won
- Spread: Cowboys (-4.5)Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.