TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Cowboys vs. Bears

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bearsof Cowboys, Bears
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,808,243
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,884,477

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,808,243 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 474 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5375…aeeabacked Cowboys49c461,134$227,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227,456.8647738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Bears60c342,434$203,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138,592.4322548.4%109 W · 116 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Cowboys37c265,398$98,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98,283.4122950.2%115 W · 114 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Bears47c257,282$121,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135,333.3541851.9%217 W · 201 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ec2…69fdbacked Cowboys39c150,000$58,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58,693.7111755.6%65 W · 52 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Bears61c93,983$57,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,432.3930043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Bears47c93,287$43,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,442.1317454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Bears47c80,000$37,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,099.9811445.6%52 W · 62 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Bears59c46,189$27,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,871.3431848.1%153 W · 165 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Bears56c45,094$25,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,625.516645.5%30 W · 36 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Bears65c45,012$29,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,959.7241947.3%198 W · 221 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Cowboys51c40,964$21,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,041.7310566.7%70 W · 35 L+12.6wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+19.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x759b…2ab3backed Cowboys53c35,440$18,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,783.422259.1%13 W · 9 L+4.4wins+0.20per pick39cpaid+246.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3d46…ef86backed Bears76c31,927$24,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,742.813100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+45.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3672…edbdbacked Cowboys44c27,488$12,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,092.724250%21 W · 21 L-5.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdfcc…441bbacked Cowboys53c27,364$14,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,502.723138.7%12 W · 19 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-29.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Cowboys51c27,262$13,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,926.317657.9%44 W · 32 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+134.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Cowboys33c27,003$8,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,860.1568446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae76…dce5backed Cowboys43c25,920$11,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,142.1927339.2%107 W · 166 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Cowboys37c24,610$9,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,104.9264747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Bears59c24,485$14,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,953.089944.4%44 W · 55 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Cowboys39c24,329$9,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,457.4819235.4%68 W · 124 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Bears46c23,376$10,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,519.4912352.8%65 W · 58 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Bears51c21,544$10,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,641.0460049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0431…6088backed Bears48c20,825$9,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,8292142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Cowboys50c20,213$10,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,018.2453348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Bears55c20,000$11,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,0002552%13 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Bears47c20,000$9,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,599.9830743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Bears56c18,965$10,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,327.8527644.2%122 W · 154 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f89…0d03backed Bears48c16,993$8,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,900.135330.2%16 W · 37 L-8.5wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-36.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Bears57c16,657$9,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,094.661148.6%297 W · 314 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed Cowboys52c16,000$8,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,319.9816545.5%75 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Cowboys35c15,450$5,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,359.2212138.8%47 W · 74 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Cowboys53c13,990$7,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,414.6629356%164 W · 129 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x328e…dc42backed Bears59c13,467$7,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,557.054436.4%16 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Cowboys53c10,377$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,50018650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Cowboys52c10,222$5,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,315.4414351%73 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bears64c10,214$6,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,702.7127348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Bears46c10,000$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,399.997042.9%30 W · 40 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed Bears54c9,338$5,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,3178648.8%42 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Cowboys50c8,427$4,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,244.131240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1484…cafebacked Bears49c8,280$4,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,2404755.3%26 W · 21 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Bears51c7,615$3,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,731.1834349.3%169 W · 174 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Cowboys52c7,500$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,90026650.8%135 W · 131 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x164f…deb3backed Bears47c7,500$3,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,974.992556%14 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+31.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Cowboys53c7,500$3,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,974.973452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Bears53c7,136$3,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,356.4344652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Bears48c6,250$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,25013142%55 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Cowboys49c6,000$2,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,94083147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed Cowboys53c5,766$3,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,056.218856.8%50 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bc…e520backed Bears47c5,590$2,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,962.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb63d…9dd6backed Cowboys53c5,555$2,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,944.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5ce…f74dbacked Cowboys24c5,394$1,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,283.34850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+20.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7784…5b6dbacked Cowboys47c5,387$2,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5101947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f2…5495backed Cowboys53c5,052$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7002744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Bears47c5,000$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,649.9818435.9%66 W · 118 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Bears47c5,000$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,649.9814342%60 W · 83 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8ff…c93bbacked Bears50c4,961$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,460.781346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1000…5e89backed Cowboys53c4,912$2,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,603.61333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f8d…6790backed Cowboys53c4,863$2,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5608247.6%39 W · 43 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Bears51c4,764$2,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,334.9832050.9%163 W · 157 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Bears49c4,655$2,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,366.1631854.7%174 W · 144 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Bears56c4,505$2,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,992.2536246.7%169 W · 193 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Bears57c4,392$2,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,882.0431056.8%176 W · 134 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3134…1b18backed Cowboys53c4,383$2,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,322.989152.7%48 W · 43 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a25…2a5fbacked Bears58c4,335$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,834.541747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.17per pick64cpaid-28.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Cowboys54c4,000$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,16011252.7%59 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Cowboys50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00017648.9%86 W · 90 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2699…29f6backed Bears47c4,000$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1203056.7%17 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb27f…8908backed Bears48c4,000$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,079.985851.7%30 W · 28 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Cowboys46c3,712$1,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,713.2120238.6%78 W · 124 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0f3…d82cbacked Cowboys53c3,673$1,947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,946.759949.5%49 W · 50 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x65f8…8c03backed Cowboys54c3,672$1,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,982.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f26…be98backed Cowboys53c3,579$1,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,896.711764.7%11 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Bears47c3,387$1,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,794.8837350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Cowboys41c3,360$1,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,383.9848847.5%232 W · 256 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Cowboys3c3,235$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.820634.5%71 W · 135 L-0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde2c…587bbacked Cowboys48c3,226$1,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,542.31540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed Bears47c3,000$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,59010552.4%55 W · 50 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Bears47c3,000$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,589.9919645.4%89 W · 107 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Bears47c2,999$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,589.6525744.4%114 W · 143 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Cowboys54c2,963$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6007549.3%37 W · 38 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe965…6559backed Cowboys44c2,951$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3006149.2%30 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Cowboys37c2,860$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,058.211446.5%53 W · 61 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Cowboys46c2,823$1,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,312.2413450%67 W · 67 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Cowboys51c2,789$1,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,419.9319551.3%100 W · 95 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Cowboys52c2,725$1,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,417.038959.6%53 W · 36 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+20.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Cowboys24c2,689$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.3210333%34 W · 69 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Cowboys53c2,649$1,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4045766.7%38 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Bears48c2,604$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,354.178343.4%36 W · 47 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+24%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Bears47c2,600$1,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,37811750.4%59 W · 58 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x052c…404ebacked Cowboys54c2,500$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3502050%10 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf208…314ebacked Bears70c2,500$1,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.51435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick56cpaid-43.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Cowboys2c2,171$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.11969.2%18 W · 178 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-67.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Bears40c2,108$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,259.5277052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0f0…60dabacked Bears59c2,074$1,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850.141637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Bears48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0404542.2%19 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Cowboys32c2,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64017144.4%76 W · 95 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed Cowboys26c2,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5204628.3%13 W · 33 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ad6…781fbacked Cowboys5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-82.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.