NFL · resolved market
DAL vs. CHI: O/U 51.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf11e1e81c67f9e8a0518abe2f310e047cf092a99f7760d048f452534dcc2a79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 56c | 12,510$7,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,506.73 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Over | 44c | 10,000$4,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,400 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1e…88d5backed Under | 57c | 5,492$3,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350.6 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Over | 43c | 4,000$1,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,720 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Over | 43c | 2,130$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.1 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 55c | 1,750$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.99 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 57c | 1,557$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.73 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 44c | 1,101$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.49 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Over | 44c | 1,100$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Over | 44c | 722.99$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.12 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fce…28f8backed Over | 45c | 611.11$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 43c | 600$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 42c | 580$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.6 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 56c | 450$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Over | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 44c | 425$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Under | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Over | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 211 | 51.2%108 W · 103 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f3…c2c2backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 174 | 59.2%103 W · 71 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x492c…16d1backed Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…7239backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c12…042fbacked Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef5…c54bbacked Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Over | 45c | 44.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 183 | 50.3%92 W · 91 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…2febbacked Over | 44c | 36.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 44c | 25.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- DAL vs. CHI: O/U 51.5this page
- Cowboys vs. BearsBears won
- DAL vs. CHI: O/U 59.5Under won
- Spread: DAL (-1.5)CHI won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.