NFL · resolved market
Spread: DAL (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f93bac95a3766c21296aac130400b9c5a9086437b689ab95a9dfd9b641f39ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CHIof DAL, CHI
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8753…85adbacked CHI | 50c | 7,079$3,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,532.93 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f2…5495backed DAL | 50c | 3,314$1,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,656.88 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed DAL | 48c | 1,900$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.01 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked CHI | 52c | 1,900$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.01 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee57…4cb0backed DAL | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed CHI | 50c | 849.76$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.88 | 184 | 35.9%66 W · 118 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked DAL | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb406…4964backed DAL | 49c | 679.45$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.93 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked DAL | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed CHI | 52c | 220$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1895…efd2backed DAL | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac0…b10abacked DAL | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked DAL | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c3…3242backed CHI | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked CHI | 52c | 168$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x887c…e405backed DAL | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.32per pick | 51cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed DAL | 49c | 105$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…61d6backed DAL | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e8…ad4bbacked DAL | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 51cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed DAL | 49c | 91.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df6…4992backed DAL | 50c | 76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked DAL | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed DAL | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed DAL | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8740…9da7backed DAL | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…2febbacked DAL | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…9b0abacked DAL | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…2a91backed DAL | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: DAL (-1.5)this page
- Cowboys vs. BearsBears won
- DAL vs. CHI: O/U 51.5Under won
- DAL vs. CHI: O/U 59.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.