TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Will Aryna Sabalenka win the Australian Open?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$86,901
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$86,475

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,901 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee00…cea1backed Yes43c10,193$4,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,395.6514345.5%65 W · 78 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x69aa…8847backed Yes78c8,061$6,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,267.5840%0 W · 4 L-2.4wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No23c7,348$1,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,664.565253.8%28 W · 24 L+7.3wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+60.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed No11c7,314$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,509.851471.4%10 W · 4 L+4.9wins+0.35per pick37cpaid+178.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Yes60c3,927$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,349.659149.5%45 W · 46 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cc0…f722backed Yes56c3,285$1,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,825.92837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick61cpaid-47.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc6fe…b77fbacked No58c2,895$1,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,218.073542.9%15 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked No30c2,565$761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,804.6794940.1%381 W · 568 L+30.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed No21c2,415$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,920.1718740.6%76 W · 111 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+2.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e3c…487ebacked Yes64c2,348$1,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,493.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No29c1,750$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,234.973647.2%17 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes41c1,737$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.2281938.9%319 W · 500 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed No60c1,621$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.391,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Yes79c1,546$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22057249.5%283 W · 289 L-32.8wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd94f…8936backed No69c1,419$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe626…2fe6backed Yes77c1,299$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.16per pick61cpaid-22.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked Yes41c1,264$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.1726039.2%102 W · 158 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f96…56c1backed Yes75c1,263$947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$947.491323.1%3 W · 10 L-4.1wins-0.31per pick54cpaid-70.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x61ac…f57dbacked Yes47c1,071$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.48333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+456.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9977…3020backed No66c975.91$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.37366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6650…d38ebacked Yes41c911.65$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.211822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-35.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x664b…8509backed No45c875.55$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.781850%9 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+63.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9524…86cfbacked Yes37c860$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.664626.1%12 W · 34 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No63c799.99$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2963823.7%9 W · 29 L-4.7wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-24.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x89a5…cd84backed Yes48c797.54$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffda…1e18backed Yes35c715$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.25616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-66.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3208…6bedbacked Yes79c645.74$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick67cpaid+34.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed No35c628.45$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.423650%18 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a6f…6b82backed Yes62c618$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.314744.7%21 W · 26 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-19.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed No65c571.76$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.065046%23 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No67c538.63$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.444459.1%26 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77f8…c8a2backed Yes41c532.01$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe95e…61f2backed Yes30c511.55$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.473138.7%12 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b23…1448backed Yes72c492.59$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.299570.5%67 W · 28 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8244…7a11backed Yes77c422.08$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3251040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14bb…882bbacked Yes77c385.65$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.95633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-55.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x62dd…869abacked Yes55c365$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.75728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-41.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes35c343.36$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.6338147%179 W · 202 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd402…5a50backed Yes63c333.21$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.9229661.5%182 W · 114 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb153…d8b5backed Yes76c280.38$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.99955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf86…601fbacked Yes68c258.91$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17510134.7%35 W · 66 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-17.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x74a8…b4f9backed Yes30c250.6$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.1810665.1%69 W · 37 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Yes40c250.45$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,33246.6%1,087 W · 1,245 L+55.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3a4…9ac8backed Yes40c249.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0f8…ae3abacked Yes41c243.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-53.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8643…85b2backed No52c242.31$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.311656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+21.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4790…2dd7backed Yes78c224.99$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.499154.9%50 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c54…cc1ebacked Yes75c200$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick63cpaid+16.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf433…2178backed Yes55c195$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.05333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-56.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5ca…6f9fbacked Yes36c194.7$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Yes40c187.78$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9136440.9%149 W · 215 L-13.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4eb…20c4backed No57c180.95$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.572100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+107.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0da…d272backed Yes77c163.38$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x985a…e9e4backed No67c158.66$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6391…bc1cbacked Yes78c150$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1171060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+37.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x358e…b0ccbacked Yes75c137.6$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.553324.2%8 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74e5…9552backed Yes47c128.98$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c6b…13c6backed Yes44c117.46$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.77366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes42c110.15$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddc9…7870backed Yes38c105.26$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+22.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb39…c696backed No20c101.2$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81966.7%6 W · 3 L+4.3wins+0.48per pick18cpaid+317.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xa1ae…3327backed Yes79c100$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc5b…90d2backed Yes37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x224b…f6b8backed No67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa256…fc1ebacked Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick38cpaid-73.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x464e…7bd8backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.93119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick26cpaid-75.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b16…cb13backed Yes40c97.18$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.87366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b95…3c92backed Yes45c94.12$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-55.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9eb…928bbacked Yes55c84.56$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.51333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-52.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30bc…2529backed No65c80$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1572…d2d8backed Yes41c79.7$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.96425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid+62.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed Yes71c77.39$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.952161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb73…a4bebacked No20c73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+79.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99fc…ec26backed Yes58c68.17$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5464240.2%258 W · 384 L-19.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53d5…b319backed No27c67.74$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21f2…7990backed Yes30c66.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-69.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd045…8367backed Yes75c66.32$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb65…4ca1backed Yes77c64.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6150…13f7backed Yes78c63.8$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.76714.3%1 W · 6 L-3.5wins-0.50per pick64cpaid-80.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Yes79c62.11$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4917867.4%120 W · 58 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes56c60$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-15.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe7b2…1a38backed Yes38c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5dd…a22ebacked No71c59.43$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.23475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf52b…a0debacked Yes40c57.02$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34d8…a2e5backed Yes55c54.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x842e…074cbacked Yes48c52.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252025%5 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-46.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbad6…9963backed No72c51$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.283467.6%23 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x312c…d181backed Yes39c50.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb501…0b16backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc80…2fdbbacked Yes75c48.95$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9833…7844backed Yes79c48.56$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.32917.2%5 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x000a…6df9backed Yes29c48.52$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.071330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x687f…cefebacked Yes37c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x733e…286abacked Yes39c36.88$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdde…5ca9backed Yes77c34.17$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85a7…ed46backed Yes77c32.69$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4273…fa0dbacked No72c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a03…0fcabacked Yes40c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x11a1…7934backed Yes38c28.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x71e4…b590backed Yes75c28.04$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.