Tennis · resolved market
Will Iga Swiatek win the Australian Open?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6656dab9b69af17c43af5e7d2ce7d2641eb699756967b0d0555749c39d1c054c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 57c | 3,790$2,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,635.9 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 20c | 2,500$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.5 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 72c | 2,134$1,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.78 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Yes | 25c | 1,755$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed No | 80c | 1,703$1,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.6 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 76c | 1,700$1,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.07 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 46c | 1,667$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.99 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Yes | 42c | 1,190$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed Yes | 35c | 1,132$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.11 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ac…f57dbacked Yes | 47c | 1,070$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +456.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffda…1e18backed Yes | 21c | 953$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bda…f32bbacked Yes | 29c | 895.96$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed No | 79c | 865.98$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.86 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 79c | 841.63$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.09 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 66c | 584.67$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.14 | 143 | 45.5%65 W · 78 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 25c | 540$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62dd…869abacked Yes | 40c | 526.72$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c9…bb9ebacked Yes | 19c | 400.75$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.67 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Yes | 43c | 217.9$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.92 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x911e…8a3fbacked Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 80c | 180$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed6…58b9backed Yes | 20c | 180$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69bb…0f5cbacked Yes | 20c | 175.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed No | 60c | 146.13$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…564cbacked Yes | 19c | 120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf86…601fbacked Yes | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…ae3abacked Yes | 54c | 92.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa810…fd25backed Yes | 38c | 87.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 72c | 83.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 381 | 47%179 W · 202 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb73…a4bebacked Yes | 28c | 81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1572…d2d8backed Yes | 36c | 76.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddc9…7870backed Yes | 43c | 70.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 67c | 16.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -8.2wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iga Swiatek win the Australian Open?this page
- Will Aryna Sabalenka win the Australian Open?No won
- Will Coco Gauff win the Australian Open?No won
- Will Elena Rybakina win the Australian Open?No won
- Will Jessica Pegula win the Australian Open?No won
- Will Karolina Muchova win the Australian Open?No won
- Will Madison Keys win the Australian Open?Yes won
- Will Mirra Andreeva win the Australian Open?No won
- Will Naomi Osaka win the Australian Open?No won
- Will Paula Badosa win the Australian Open?No won
- Will Qinwen Zheng win the Australian Open?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.