Tennis · resolved market
Will Madison Keys win the Australian Open?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55953b6e97f218455dc1a8e3439dd05fa621d39a7690c9c6f05ca69a8f513e34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 26c | 9,524$2,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,072.83 | 143 | 45.5%65 W · 78 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed Yes | 23c | 5,800$1,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,485.13 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +7.3wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes | 24c | 4,000$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,036 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +29%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62dd…869abacked No | 78c | 3,214$2,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,516.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69aa…8847backed No | 78c | 2,826$2,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,203 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked Yes | 11c | 2,708$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,397.99 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 6c | 2,388$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,245.25 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed Yes | 22c | 2,000$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,570 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Yes | 22c | 2,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 22c | 1,804$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,408.21 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed No | 76c | 1,707$1,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8244…7a11backed Yes | 19c | 1,615$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,312.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ac…f57dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,073$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +456.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes | 11c | 871$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.41 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11e5…8a64backed Yes | 25c | 785.65$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.65 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Yes | 26c | 602.06$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.06 | 365 | 40.8%149 W · 216 L | -13.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…f722backed No | 77c | 521.2$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 61cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf86…601fbacked Yes | 25c | 406.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.84 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 26c | 400$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.92 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Yes | 10c | 364.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.03 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Yes | 9c | 347.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.11 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Yes | 25c | 290$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.3 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb39…c696backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +4.3wins | +0.48per pick | 18cpaid | +317.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf571…3a5dbacked Yes | 13c | 179.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked Yes | 23c | 158.69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.03 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…be32backed Yes | 28c | 157.71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.71 | 128 | 52.3%67 W · 61 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8171…8e32backed Yes | 22c | 100.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +128.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1572…d2d8backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e55…59a8backed Yes | 60c | 96.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…62aebacked Yes | 22c | 90.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2998…b425backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee7…043dbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57fa…fd79backed Yes | 56c | 29.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…72e5backed Yes | 46c | 25.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dcc…bef4backed Yes | 50c | 21.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20bf…5429backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Madison Keys win the Australian Open?this page
- Will Aryna Sabalenka win the Australian Open?No won
- Will Coco Gauff win the Australian Open?No won
- Will Elena Rybakina win the Australian Open?No won
- Will Iga Swiatek win the Australian Open?No won
- Will Jessica Pegula win the Australian Open?No won
- Will Karolina Muchova win the Australian Open?No won
- Will Mirra Andreeva win the Australian Open?No won
- Will Naomi Osaka win the Australian Open?No won
- Will Paula Badosa win the Australian Open?No won
- Will Qinwen Zheng win the Australian Open?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.